BLS Revises 2024 Hiring, But Not the Labor Market Narrative
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  • BLS estimates 911,000 jobs may be removed from payroll growth in the period between April 2024 and March 2025—halving average monthly gains from 147,000 to 71,000.

BLS Revises 2024 Hiring, But Not the Labor Market Narrative

September 10, 2025

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • BLS estimates 911,000 jobs may be removed from payroll growth in the period between April 2024 and March 2025—halving average monthly gains from 147,000 to 71,000.

  • Estimates are preliminary with final revisions taking affect in February 2026. Since 2000, initial estimates have been more pessimistic than the final benchmark in 17 of 25 years—including 2024, when an initial 818,000 downward adjustment was trimmed to 598,000.
  • Currently, the labor market remains defined more by hiring weakness than rising layoffs, with revisions indicating that the hiring slowdown in mid-2024 was sharper than previously thought amid normalization toward full employment.
  • Regardless of the re-estimated pace of job creation last year,  labor market slack was and remains limited given the low unemployment rate and few jobless claims. We do expect this to change as the effects of tariffs are likely to weigh more heavily on the economy in Q4 and early 2026.
  • Nonetheless, the benchmark revisions likely compound concerns among Fed policymakers of fading labor market momentum and increasing downside risk to their full employme
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Author

Mitchell Barnes

Mitchell Barnes

Economist

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