Steady Labor Market Allows Fed Pause
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Economic Data & Analysis

Steady Labor Market Allows Fed Pause

09 January 2026 / Brief

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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The steady state of the labor market reflected in the latest employment report will likely keep the Fed on hold at the upcoming meeting this month.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The steady state of the labor market reflected in the latest employment report will likely keep the Fed on hold at the upcoming meeting this month.

  • The decline in the unemployment rate in December following a downward revision in November suggests downside risks to the state of the labor market may have been somewhat exaggerated.
  • The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for November continued to support the view of a relatively healthy low-churn labor market as job openings remained low, but so did layoffs.
  • The Fed may pause in January to assess how previous interest rate reductions percolate throughout the economy. However, the FOMC may resume rate cuts later this year.

Figure 1. Unemployment Rate Drops Post Shutdown

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Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, The Conference Board, 2026

Note: Due to federal government shutdown, the BLS was unable to collect Household Survey data for the month of October, leaving a gap i

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

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