Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, October 13, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the United Kingdom contracted by 0.3% in August 2025 to 74.3 (2016=100), after no change in July. As a result, the UK LEI decreased by 1.3% over the six-month period from February to August 2025, a higher rate of decline than the -1.1% over the previous six-month period between August 2024 and February 2025.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom increased by 0.2% in August 2025 to 108.3 (2016=100), after also no change in July. Overall, the CEI for the UK grew by 0.8% over the six-month period from February to August 2025, on par with the 0.8% increase observed over the previous six-month period between August 2024 and February 2025.

“The UK LEI remained on a downward trend and continued to decline in August,” said Timothy Brennan, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “As in previous months, the weakness came primarily from soft consumer sentiment, lower housing sale expectations, and a rise in unemployment claimants, which more than offset gains from financial components, operating surplus, and productivity. The 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI stayed above the recession threshold, and the warning signal was not triggered either. Still, the LEI reading indicates that economic growth in the United Kingdom will be sluggish through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. The Bank of England cut the bank rate for the third time this year in August 2025, a move that could help ease economic headwinds. The Conference Board expects UK GDP to grow by 1.3% in 2025 and in 2026.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, November 11, 2025, at 9:30 A.M. ET.

The UK LEI continued its downward trend in August...

NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months at an annualized rate. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.

The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies at or below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month growth rate (annualized) falls below the threshold of −3.6%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K.

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The eight components of Leading Economic Index® for the U.K. are:

• Unemployment Claimant Counts
• Weekly Working Hours
• GfK Consumer Survey: General Economic Situation: Next 12 months
• Stock prices, FTSE all share prices index
• Yield Spread
• Productivity, Whole Economy
• Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations
• Housing Sales Expectation for next 3 months^©

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the U.K. are:

• Industrial Production
• Retail Sales
• Employment
• Real Household Disposable Income

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org