Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, June 12, 2026

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the United Kingdom fell by 0.4% in April 2026 to 75.0 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.5% in March. As a result, the UK LEI contracted by 1.2% over the six-month period from October 2025 to April 2026, slightly greater than the rate of decline of 1.0% observed over the previous six-month period between April and October 2025.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom ticked up by 0.1% in April 2026 to 108.4 (2016=100), after also increasing by 0.1% in March. Overall, the CEI for the UK grew by 0.7% over the six-month period from October 2025 to April 2026, greater than the 0.2% increase observed over the previous six-month period between April and October 2025.

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, July 14, 2026, at 9:30 A.M. ET.

The UK LEI fell for the fifth time in the last seven months

NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months at an annualized rate. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.

The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies at or below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month growth rate (annualized) falls below the threshold of −3.6%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.

The composite business cycle indexes pre- and post- benchmark revisions: 1970-present

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K.

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The eight components of Leading Economic Index® for the U.K. are:

• Unemployment Claimant Counts
• Weekly Working Hours
• GfK Consumer Survey: General Economic Situation: Next 12 months
• Stock prices, FTSE all share prices index
• Yield Spread
• Productivity, Whole Economy
• Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations
• Housing Sales Expectation for next 3 months^©

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the U.K. are:

• Industrial Production
• Retail Sales
• Employment
• Real Household Disposable Income

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the Member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead^®®. Founded in 1916, we are a nonpartisan, not-for-profit organization holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org  l  Learn about Membership