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13 February 2026 / Article
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Copy LinkAs year-end national account data continue to trickle-in around the world, 2025 global GDP growth likely expanded by approximately 3.3% year over year. This growth rate is identical to that seen in 2024 but is smaller than the rates seen between 2021 and 2023. Looking ahead, The Conference Board forecasts that global growth will cool to 2.9% in 2026 and then improve slightly to 3.0% in 2027.
For many economies around the world, the negative growth shock from US tariffs has only partially manifested. Surges in exports to the US, resulting from front-loaded demand and inventory stockpiling among US businesses before and during tariff announcements, resulted in strong growth rates in 2025 for many economies. However, we expect weaker numbers in early 2026 as the uncertainty, geopolitical volatility, and the full weight of tariffs take their toll.
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