Global Forecast Update
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Global Growth to Soften in 2026 But Improve in 2027

The Conference Board forecasts that global real GDP growth will continue to slow over the next year but improve somewhat in 2027.

Following strong global growth of 3.3% in 2024, growth in 2025 is on track to ease to 3.1%. Growth is forecasted to slow further to 2.9% in 2026 before rebounding somewhat to 3.0% in 2027. These projections are unchanged relative to our October forecast.

For many economies around the world, the negative shock to growth associated with US tariffs is beginning to manifest. Surges in exports to the US, resulting from front-loaded demand and inventory stockpiling among US businesses ahead of tariff implementation, resulted in strong growth rates in H1 2025 for many economies. However, we expect weaker numbers in Q4 2025 and early 2026 as the full weight of tariffs takes its toll.

Global Growth to Soften in 2026 But Improve in 2027

The Conference Board forecasts that global real GDP growth will continue to slow over the next year but improve somewhat in 2027.

Following strong global growth of 3.3% in 2024, growth in 2025 is on track to ease to 3.1%. Growth is forecasted to slow further to 2.9% in 2026 before rebounding somewhat to 3.0% in 2027. These projections are unchanged relative to our October forecast.

For many economies around the world, the negative shock to growth associated with US tariffs is beginning to manifest. Surges in exports to the US, resulting from front-loaded demand and inventory stockpiling among US businesses ahead of tariff implementation, resulted in strong growth rates in H1 2025 for many economies. However, we expect weaker numbers in Q4 2025 and early 2026 as the full weight of tariffs takes its toll.

Authors

Erik Lundh

Erik Lundh Erik Lundh

Senior Economist, Global
The Conference Board

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Dana M. Peterson

Dana M. Peterson Dana M. Peterson

Chief Economist and Leader, Economy, Strategy & Fi…
The Conference Board

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Konstantinos Panitsas

Konstantinos Panitsas Konstantinos Panitsas

Economist
The Conference Board

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Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva Yelena Shulyatyeva

Senior US Economist
The Conference Board

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Fiona Liu

Fiona Liu Fiona Liu

Economist
The Conference Board

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