.png)
Loading...
11 September 2025 / Article
Email
Linkedin
Facebook
X
Copy Link
The Conference Board’s real GDP forecast for the global economy remains at 3.0% for 2025, but has been upgraded by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% for 2026. This follows growth of 3.2% in 2024.
For many economies around the world, the negative shock to growth associated with US tariffs is only just beginning to manifest. Surges in exports to the US, resulting from front-loaded demand and inventory stockpiling among US businesses ahead of tariff implementation, resulted in strong growth rates in Q2 2025 for many economies. However, we expect weaker numbers in Q3 and Q4 2025 as the full weight of tariffs takes its toll. Exports to the US will atrophy as US consumers grapple with higher prices for imported goods. As the drag on growth from tariffs has shifted from mid-2025 to late-2025, there will likely be a rebound in growth early next year that lifts our 2026 forecast by 0.1 percentage point.
myTCB® Members get exclusive access to webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to events.
