Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:30 AM ET, August 14, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Australia rose by 0.5% in June 2025 to 114.8 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.2% in May. Overall, the LEI grew by 0.7% over the first six months of 2025, slowing from a 1.7% increase over the second half of 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia rose by 0.2% in June 2025 to 118.1 (2016=100), after also rising by 0.2% in May. Overall, the CEI grew by 0.8% over the first half of 2025, moderating from a 1.3% expansion over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Australia increased for a third consecutive month in June,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “All components contributed positively to the Index except rural goods exports, which leaned slightly negative. However, rural goods exports were mixed in prior months and should stabilize as seasonal swings and global supply shocks ease. The annual growth rate of the LEI continued to strengthen in May and June after turning positive in April, pointing to stronger growth ahead.  While global trade tensions could affect external demand, the outlook for the Australian economy remains positive, with lower interest rates and moderate inflation. The Conference Board currently expects Australia’s real GDP to strengthen somewhat and overall to grow by 1.4% in 2025.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, September 16, 2025, at 10:30 A.M. ET.

The Australia LEI increased for a third consecutive month in June 

The Australia LEI was supported by improvements in most of its components

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The seven components of Leading Economic Index® for Australia are:

• Yield Spread, 10Y – Policy Rate
• Share Prices, All Ordinaries S&P/ASX 200
• Money Supply, M3
• Building Approvals
• Rural Goods Exports
• Non-Farm Sector, Sale to Inventories Ratio
• Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corp.

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Australia are:

• Employment
• Household Income
• Industrial Production
• Retail Trade

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org