Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:30 AM ET, October 14, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Australia improved by 0.6% in August 2025 to 114.7 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.1% in July. Over the recent six-month period from February through August 2025, the LEI rose moderately by 0.6%, slowing from a 1.7% increase over the previous six-month period, between August 2024 and February 2025.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia picked up by 0.1% in August 2025 to 118.4 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2% in July. Overall, the CEI grew by 0.9% from February to August 2025, the same rate of growth as over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Australia increased in August and regained some upward momentum after three months of small incremental gains,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “All components made positive contributions. Notably, building approvals partially recovered on a three-month moving average basis, after pulling back last month. Looking at the cumulative contributions over the last six months, five of the seven components of the Australia LEI were positive, while the gross operating surplus and rural goods exports showed some weakness. Accordingly, the annual growth rate of the Australia LEI resumed its uptrend in August, suggesting a possible acceleration in economic activity ahead. Overall, the Australian economic momentum remains solid, with easing monetary policy and moderate inflation. The Conference Board currently expects Australia’s real GDP to grow by 1.7% in 2025 and accelerate to 1.9% in 2026.”

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, November 12, 2025, at 10:30 A.M. ET.

The Australia LEI increased in August

In August, all components were positive, including building approvals that partially recovered on a three-month moving average basis

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The seven components of Leading Economic Index® for Australia are:

• Yield Spread, 10Y – Policy Rate
• Share Prices, All Ordinaries S&P/ASX 200
• Money Supply, M3
• Building Approvals
• Rural Goods Exports
• Non-Farm Sector, Sale to Inventories Ratio
• Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corp.

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Australia are:

• Employment
• Household Income
• Industrial Production
• Retail Trade

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. tcb.org