Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:30 AM ET, September 16, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Australia was unchanged in July 2025 at 114.0 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.2% in June. However, overall the LEI contracted slightly by 0.2% from January through July 2025, substantially slowing from a 1.6% increase over the previous six-month period, between July 2024 and January 2025.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia rose by 0.2% in July 2025 to 118.2 (2016=100), after rising by 0.1% in June. Overall, the CEI grew by 0.7% from January to July 2025, slightly more than half  the 1.3% increase over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Australia was unchanged in July after three consecutive months of increase,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “A rise in rural goods exports as well as mild positive contributions from most other components supported the Index. However, this was offset by a drop in building approvals, driven by a fall in apartment and multi-unit projects. There was also a softening in gross operating surplus in Q2, indicating volatility in certain sectors such as mining and commodities. The annual growth rate of the Australia LEI consolidated in July after a strong recovery started in April, suggesting a mild cooling of recent positive economic momentum. However, while global trade tensions could affect external demand, the outlook for the Australian economy remains positive, with lower interest rates and moderate inflation. The Conference Board currently expects Australia’s real GDP to strengthen somewhat and overall to grow by 1.7% in 2025.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, October 14, 2025, at 10:30 A.M. ET.

The Australia LEI was unchanged in July after three consecutive months of increase

In July, a rise in rural goods exports as well as mild positive contributions from most other components were offset by a drop in building approvals

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The seven components of Leading Economic Index® for Australia are:

• Yield Spread, 10Y – Policy Rate
• Share Prices, All Ordinaries S&P/ASX 200
• Money Supply, M3
• Building Approvals
• Rural Goods Exports
• Non-Farm Sector, Sale to Inventories Ratio
• Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corp.

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Australia are:

• Employment
• Household Income
• Industrial Production
• Retail Trade

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org