Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, April 16, 2026

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the Euro Area decreased by 0.5% in March 2026 to 97.8 (2016=100), after declining by 0.1% in February. Due to persistent weakening over the last seven months, the LEI contracted by 1.1% over the six-month period from September 2025 to March 2026, but at a smaller rate than the 2.1% decline experienced over the previous six-month period, from March to September 2025.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the Euro Area ticked up by 0.1% in March 2026 to 110.1 (2016=100), after being unchanged in February. The CEI increased by 0.2% from September 2025 to March 2026, more than offsetting the 0.1% decline observed over the previous six-month period, from March to September 2025.

“The Euro Area LEI declined again in March,” said Timothy Brennan, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “As in previous months, consumer expectations component was the main drag on the Index. Falling stock prices and a decrease in business expectations in the service sector also contributed to the monthly drop. Improvement in the yield spread and the systemic stress composite indicator helped mitigate the decline.”

“The 6-month growth rate of the Euro Area LEI remained negative, signaling pressure on economic activity ahead,” continued Brennan. “Rising energy costs, exacerbated by the war in the Middle East, pushed consumer inflation up to 2.5% y/y in March from 1.9% in February. As a net energy importer, prolonged energy price and supply chain shocks make parts of the region more susceptible to inflationary pressures than other regions.  If the conflict persists, then projections for growth may be weaker, especially for the manufacturing sector and consumers through eroded real incomes. Due to these shocks, The Conference Board has revised annual real GDP growth in the Euro Area down to 1.0% for 2026, from 1.3% projected a month ago.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, May 19, 2026, at 9:30 A.M. ET.

The Euro Area LEI fell in March

Weaker signals from consumer expectations, stock prices, and business expectations in the services sector headlined the March contraction

The 6-month growth rate of the Euro Area LEI, was sligthly more negative in March, but remained above the recession threshold

NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months at an annualized rate. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.

The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies at or below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month growth rate (annualized) falls below the threshold of −5.6%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The eight components of Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area are:

• ECB Minimum Bid Yield Spread
• Consumer Expectations of the General Economic Situation
• EURO STOXX® Price Index
• Industry Production Expectations
• Services Expected Demand
• Volume of Order Books
• Index of Residential Building Permits
• Systemic Stress Composite Indicator

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the Euro Area are:

• Industrial Production
• Employment
• Retail Sales
• Manufacturing Sales

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org