Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:00 AM ET, October 15, 2026

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, inched down by 0.2% in September 2026 to 124.8 (2016=100), following a 0.5% decline in August. As a result, over the six-month period between March and September 2026, the LEI contracted by 0.9%, a sharp reversal of the 3.5% increase registered over the previous six-month period (September 2025 to March 2026).

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, declined by 0.3% to 116.5 (2016=100) in September 2026, following a similar contraction in August. Overall, the CEI also decreased by 0.2% over the six-month period between March and September 2026, a reversal compared to 1.5% expansion from September 2025 to March 2026.

The next release is scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026 at 10 A.M. ET.

The Conference Board/Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI declined again in September for a third consecutive month, extending its downward trend

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in September 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.

The decline was driven primarily by weakness in non-financial components such as manufacturing and services sector expectations, as well as a slight worsening in consumers’ outlook

The annual growth rate for the Brazil LEI declined in September but remained in positive territory, still indicating economic growth ahead

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in September 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

 The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around six months.

 The eight components of the Leading Economic Index® for Brazil are:

• Swap Rate - 1 year
• Ibovespa, Bovespa Index
• Manufacturing Survey, Expectations Index
• Services Sector Survey, Expectations Index
• Consumers Survey, Expectations Index
• Terms of Trade, Index
• Physical Production, Durables Consumer Goods, Index
• Exports, Quantum, Index

The six components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil are:

• Industrial production
• Industrial Electric Energy Consumption
• Shipments of Corrugated Paper
• Volume of Sales of the Retail Market
• Occupied Employment Population
• Average Real Income of Workers

To access data, please visit: https://www.conference-board.org/data 

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the Member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead^®®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit organization holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org  l  Learn about Membership

ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre