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For Release 9:00 AM ET, November 24, 2025
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China declined by 0.8% in October 2025 to 145.6 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.1% in September. As a result, the LEI contracted by 2.0% over the six-month period from April to October 2025, continuing a 1.7% decline over the previous six-month period between October 2024 and April 2025.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China ticked up by 0.1% in October 2025 to 156.6 (2016=100), after expanding by 0.3% in September. Overall, the CEI increased by 2.9% over the six-month period from April to October 2025, improvement from a 0.6% growth observed over the previous six-month period between October 2024 and April 2025.
“The China LEI declined in October, continuing its downward trend,” said Timothy Brennan, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Weakness was broad-based across components in October, with 6 of 8 declining. Consumer confidence continued to be the primary drag on the index, while building construction, and the logistics prosperity index also recorded notable negative contributions. Labor demand was the only component to rise, posting a marginal increase. With the negative semi- and annual growth rates of the LEI pointing to headwinds and with the 6-month diffusion falling below 50, the recession signal went off again in October. On the one hand, the supply-side of the economy (e.g. Industrial Value Added and Manufacturing PMIs) has shown resilience. On the other hand, the demand-side has deteriorated with moderating retail sales and low consumer expectations. Nonetheless, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to be 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026.”
The next release is scheduled for Monday, December 22, 2025, at 9:00 A.M. ET
NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months at an annualized rate. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.
The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies at or below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month growth rate (annualized) falls below the threshold of −2.8%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around five months.
The eight components of the Leading Economic Index® for China are:
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for China are:
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. Tcb.org
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All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed. TCB will resume publication once updated US federal government data are released.
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