Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:00 AM ET, June 25, 2026

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

 This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China ticked down by 0.1% in May 2026 to 148.8 (2016=100), after declining by 0.9% in April. As a result, the LEI contracted by 1.4% over the six-month period from November 2025 to May 2026, a slightly smaller rate of decline compared to the 1.9% contraction over the previous six-month period between May and November 2025.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China rose by 1.3% in May 2026 to 160.1 (2016=100), more than offsetting the 0.9% decline in April. The CEI expanded by 2.1% over the six-month period from November 2025 to May 2026, greater than the 1.7% growth rate registered from May to November 2025.

“The China LEI declined in 6 out of the last 7 months and continued its downward trend in May,” said Timothy Brennan, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The consumer expectations component has been a primary drag on the index, with the measure remaining below the neutral threshold of 100 for more than four years. Additionally, the logistics prosperity index and medium- and long-term loans also recorded notable negative contributions. Imports of machinery and transportation equipment, building construction, and labor demand improved in May but not enough to offset the weaknesses of all remaining components.”

“The semi- and annual-growth rates of the LEI declined, and the 6-month diffusion index remained below 50, triggering the recession warning signal in May, but we do not anticipate a recession in China,” added Brennan. “The demand-side of the economy remained weak, with hard activity data reinforcing the subdued consumer expectations survey measure. According to published data, retail sales fell by 0.6% y/y, the first monthly decline since December 2022. Fixed-asset investment also contracted by 4.1% y/y in the January–May 2026 period. Exports continue to support China’s economic growth. However, a challenging external environment, like heightened trade tensions with Europe, poses downside risk. The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in 2026 from 5.0% in 2025.”

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, July 23, 2026, at 9:00 A.M. ET

The China LEI continued its downward trend in May

The LEI’s decline was fueled by weak consumer expectations, a decrease in the logistics prosperity index, and a reduction of medium- and long-term loans