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For Release 9:00 AM ET, September 25, 2025
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China decreased by 0.5% in August 2025 to 146.7 (2016=100), after also contracting by 0.3% in July. As a result, the LEI declined by 2.1% over the six-month period from February to August 2025, after decreasing by 1.5% over the previous six-month period between August 2024 and February 2025.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China increased by 0.5% in August 2025 to 156.1 (2016=100), after expanding by 1.1% in July. Overall, the Index grew by 3.8% over the six-month period from February to August 2025, dwarfing the 0.2% growth observed over the previous six-month period between August 2024 and February 2025.
“The China LEI declined again in August, marking its eighth consecutive monthly drop in 2025,” said Timothy Brennan, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Medium and long-term loans bolstered the index, however, widespread weakness from remaining 7 components weighed negatively on the LEI. Notably, consumer confidence has been depressed since April 2022 and continued to be the main drag on the Index. With the negative semi- and annual growth rates of the LEI pointing to headwinds and with the 6-month diffusion falling below 50, the recession signal went off again in August. Despite the 90-day extension of the tariff pause on August 11, China’s economy continues to grapple with weak domestic demand, declining manufacturing activity, and persistent global uncertainties. As such, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to between 4.5% and 5% in 2025.”
The next release is scheduled for Monday, October 27, 2025, at 9:00 A.M. ET
NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months at an annualized rate. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.
The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies at or below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month growth rate (annualized) falls below the threshold of −2.8%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around five months.
The eight components of the Leading Economic Index® for China are:
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for China are:
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
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All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed. TCB will resume publication once updated US federal government data are released.
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