Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:30 AM ET, November 11, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan declined by 0.1% in September 2025 to 86.8 (2016=100), reversing a 0.1% increase in August (downwardly revised from 0.3%). Over the six-month period between March and September 2025, the LEI for Japan also declined by 1.8%, which is a deterioration from a 1.3% growth between September 2024 and March 2025.

 The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan declined by 0.4% in September 2025 to 98.0 (2016=100), after being unchanged in August, according to revised data. The CEI for Japan inched down by 0.1% over the most recent six-months period ending in September 2025, continuing the 0.4% decrease over the previous six months (September 2024 to March 2025).

 “In September, the Japan LEI declined, erasing the small gain made in August” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “As in August, the increases came from financial components, including stock prices, which reached a new all-time high. However, these gains were not enough to offset substantial weaknesses in suspension of transactions, overtime worked in manufacturing and six-month growth rate of labor productivity. While the monthly decline was limited, the LEI’s six-month growth rate fell much deeper into negative territory, but this was largely driven by impact of the fluctuations in building permits around the regulatory changes on April 1st. Meanwhile, the annual growth was only slightly negative, signaling no major headwinds in the near term. As of now, The Conference Board forecasts Japan GDP to expand by around 1.3% in 2025, with growth slowing to 0.9% in 2026.”

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, December10, 2025, at 10:30 A.M. ET.

The Japan LEI ticked down in September