Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:30 AM ET, October 9, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan increased by 0.3% in August 2025 to 87.3 (2016=100), partially reversing a 0.5% decline in July. Over the six-month period between February and August 2025, the LEI for Japan increased by 0.1%, the same rate of growth as between August 2024 and February 2025.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan declined by 0.4% in August 2025 to 98.0 (2016=100), following no change in July. The CEI for Japan fell by 0.3% over the most recent six-months period ending in August 2025, continuation of a 0.2% decrease over the previous six months (August 2024 to February 2025).

“The Japan LEI partially recovered from its July dip” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The biggest gains came from financial components and new orders for machinery and construction. Notably, stock prices hit an all-time high in August and continued to rally into September as companies released strong Q1 earnings. Stock prices also benefited from easing concerns over tariffs as the US government agreed to amend a presidential executive order and remove overlapping tariffs on Japanese goods. This will especially benefit the auto industry for which tariffs will be lowered to 15% from 27.5%. While the LEI has increased only slightly, that was enough to push its six-month and annual growth rates into positive territory, indicating fading obstacles to growth in the near term. Currently, The Conference Board forecasts Japan GDP to expand by around 1.3% in 2025.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, November 11, 2025, at 10:30 A.M. ET.

The Japan LEI ticked up in August

The annual growth of Japan LEI turned positive for the first time since March, signaling a lessening of headwinds in the economic environment

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan.
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around four months.

The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for Japan are:

• Real Money Supply, M2 + CD Money 
• Yield Spread, (10 year gov bonds minus Uncollateralized: Overnight Rate) 
• Stock Price Index 
• Dwelling Units Started 
• Suspension of transactions 
• Tankan Business Conditions, All Enterprises, All Industries 
• Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity Mfg 
• Real Operating Profits 
• New Orders for Machinery and Construction 
• Index of Overtime Worked, Mfg 

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Japan are:

• Number of Employed Persons 
• Industrial Production 
• Wage and Salary Income 
• Real Retail, Wholesale, and Manuf. Sales

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org