Rising Unemployment to Dwarf Solid Payrolls in December FOMC Decision
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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Despite a solid 119k rebound in payrolls in September, a Fed interest rate cut on December 10th is still more likely than not given continued unemployment rate increases. We still expect the Fed to cut by 25bps at the upcoming meeting.

Rising Unemployment to Dwarf Solid Payrolls in December FOMC Decision

November 20, 2025

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Despite a solid 119k rebound in payrolls in September, a Fed interest rate cut on December 10th is still more likely than not given continued unemployment rate increases. We still expect the Fed to cut by 25bps at the upcoming meeting.

  • Still, the September jobs report’s mixed messaging does not make the Fed’s job much easier. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announcements, the FOMC will not receive October or November data before their meeting.
  • The unemployment rate rose to 4.44% in September, up from 4.32% in August. The rise in the unemployment rate was mainly driven by an increase in labor force participation and permanent job losers.
  • The jobless rate could rise by another 0.1-0.2pp from the current level by the end of this year due to federal government worker retirements and layoffs of private sector workers negatively impacted by the federal government shutdown.

Figure 1. September Payroll Gain Reflected Weather and Health Care Hiring

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Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, The Conference Board, 2025&

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Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Senior US Economist

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