The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. decreased by 0.3 percent in April to 119.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in March. The LEI is now up 0.9 percent over the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.
“The US LEI declined in April largely due to weak consumer expectations and a drop in residential building permits,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Overall, the US LEI was essentially flat in recent months which is in line with a moderate growth outlook in the near-term. A range of downside risks—including inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and pandemic-related shutdowns, particularly in China—continue to weigh on the outlook. Nevertheless, we project the US economy should resume expanding in Q2 following Q1’s contraction in real GDP. Despite downgrades to previous forecasts, The Conference Board still projects 2.3 percent year-over-year US GDP growth in 2022.”
The recent trajectory of the US LEI slowed, pointing to more moderate growth in the near-term
The recent behavior of the leading indicators was consistent with moderate growth amid increasing risks due to the war in Ukraine
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.4 percent in April to 108.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in March. The CEI increased by 1.6 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.4 percent in April to 111.6 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in March. The LAG increased by 2.6 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org • Learn more about our mission and becoming a member
The next release is scheduled for Friday, June 17 at 10 A.M. ET
For further information contact:
Jonathan Liu
732.991.1754
JLiu@tcb.org
With graph and summary table
May 19, 2022
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Inched Down Further in August
September 19, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Declined in July
August 19, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Slightly in June
July 18, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Again in May
June 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Continued to Fall in April
May 17, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell in March
April 18, 2024
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Charts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US rose sharply in August and remains on a rapidly rising trajectory. The strengths among the leading indic…
LEARN MORECharts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States continued to improve in August, but a recession signal derived from the index has continued t…
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the US dropped 4.4 percent in April, following a decline of 7.4 percent in March.
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