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US Leading Indicators

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  •  + 0.5% Australia LEI
  •  - 0.5% Brazil LEI
  •  - 0.3% China LEI
  •  - 7.2pts Consumer Confidence
  •  - 0.82% Employment Trends
  •  - 0.2% Euro Area LEI
  •  - 0.3% France LEI
  •  - 0.5% Germany LEI
  •  - 0.3% Global LEI
  •  + 3.3% HWOL
  •   0.0% India LEI
  •  - 0.7% Japan LEI
  •  - 0.3% Mexico LEI
  •  - 0.6% South Korea LEI
  •  - 0.1% Spain LEI
  •  - 0.3% UK LEI
  •  - 0.3% U.S. LEI
  •  + 9.0pts U.S. CEO Confidence

    • Absorbing Global Shocks


    April 21, 2022 | Report

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    What leading indicators say about prospects of a 2022 recession in the US

    Assorted yield curves have inverted, but our canary in the coal mine—The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® or LEI—is still singing. Risks to the global economic outlook from the war in Ukraine and tightening Fed policy, notwithstanding, our leading economic indicators continue to point to positive growth in the US over the next six to nine months. Importantly, the Leading Credit Index™, or LCI, a broad measure of credit conditions and a subcomponent of the leading index, does not portend a US recession.


    AUTHORS

    AtamanOzyildirim

    Ataman Ozyildirim

    Former Senior Director, Economics
    The Conference Board

    Dana M.Peterson

    Dana M. Peterson

    Chief Economist and Leader, Economy, Strategy & Finance Center
    The Conference Board

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    Charts

    August US leading index points to continued economic growth

    The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US rose sharply in August and remains on a rapidly rising trajectory. The strengths among the leading indic…

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    Charts

    US LEI improving, but recession signal remains

    The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States continued to improve in August, but a recession signal derived from the index has continued t…

    LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration

    Charts

    LEI points to a deep recession with no sign of fast rebound

    The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the US dropped 4.4 percent in April, following a decline of 7.4 percent in March. 

    LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration

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    Publications

    Technical Notes for the US LEI

    Technical Notes for the US LEI

    March 20, 2025 | Guide & Reference

    US LEI Chartbook

    US LEI Chartbook

    June 17, 2022 | Report

    Absorbing Global Shocks

    Absorbing Global Shocks

    April 21, 2022 | Report

    August US leading index points to continued economic growth

    August US leading index points to continued economic growth

    September 23, 2021 | Chart

    US LEI improving, but recession signal remains

    US LEI improving, but recession signal remains

    September 24, 2020 | Chart

    LEI points to a deep recession with no sign of fast rebound

    LEI points to a deep recession with no sign of fast rebound

    May 21, 2020 | Chart

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    Webcasts, Podcasts and Videos

    The Long-term Economic Outlook for the US, Europe, and China

    December 11, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)

    The Evolving Economic Outlook for Europe

    July 10, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)

    What Are The Conference Board LEIs Telling Us About the Future?

    April 10, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)

    Inflation, Labor Markets, and the Fed

    May 11, 2022 11:00 AM ET (New York)

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