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Timely insights from the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center
We anticipate the Fed to deliver a 25bps cut at the 17 September FOMC meeting followed by four more cuts of a similar magnitude at each of the upcoming October, December, January and March meetings. We expect the Fed to reach the neutral policy rate of around 3% in March 2026.
Following recent sizable revisions and a substantial slowdown in the pace of job creation, we think downside risks to the Fed’s maximum employment mandate increased disproportionately as compared to the central bank’s price stability mandate.
A reduction in policy rates appears likely despite the August CPI data showing rising inflation, as risks to the maximum employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate currently outweighs price stability concerns. A shift in focus from its price stability to maximum employment mandate likely represents the change in the Fed’s reaction function to be more preemptive rather than following financial market cues or being data-dependent.
The latest labor market data, including annual revisions to payroll
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CPI Details Give Green Light to Further Fed Rate Cuts
October 24, 2025
Rising Inflation Still Leaves Room for Fed Rate Cuts
September 26, 2025
Rising Labor Market Risks Unite the Fed to Deliver 25bps Cut
September 17, 2025
August Retail Sales Reflect Consumer Resilience—for Now
September 16, 2025
Tariffs a Factor, but Still Muted in CPI; Fed to Focus on Labor Market
September 11, 2025
Consumers Continue to Favor Necessities amid Rising Prices
August 29, 2025
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This index identifies the risk of future labor shortages for specific occupations.
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Our goal is to help members see beyond the political dynamic to inform a medium-term view that supports your strategic planning at this difficult juncture.
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All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed. TCB will resume publication once updated US federal government data are released.
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PRESS RELEASE
New Data Reveal the Demographic Divides Driving US Consumer Confidence
October 23, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
The Conference Board Launches Consumer Confidence Survey® Premium Dataset
October 23, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for India Increased in September
October 23, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Mexico Increased in September
October 21, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for France Improved in August
October 17, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
CEO Confidence Ticked Down to Further Below Neutral in Q4
October 16, 2025
Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences
CPI Details Give Green Light to Further Fed Rate Cuts
October 24, 2025 | Brief
October 17, 2025 | Article
Economy Watch: US View (October 2025)
October 17, 2025 | Article
The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy
October 16, 2025 | Article
CEO Confidence Survey Quarterly Report
October 16, 2025 | Article
September 30, 2025 | Additional Resources
US Tariffs: What’s Changed, What’s Next
October 15, 2025
Plugged In or Power Outage? Corporate Risk in US Grid Capacity
September 24, 2025
The Economic Outlook—Storms or Sunshine Ahead?
September 10, 2025
US Labor Shortages Update: Skills, Aging, & Policy Impacts
August 06, 2025
Economy Watch: CEO Confidence in an Uncertain World
June 11, 2025
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