Loading...
16 September 2025 / Brief
Email
Linkedin
Facebook
X
Copy LinkWe anticipate the Fed to deliver a 25bps cut at the 17 September FOMC meeting followed by four more cuts of a similar magnitude at each of the upcoming October, December, January and March meetings. We expect the Fed to reach the neutral policy rate of around 3% in March 2026.
Following recent sizable revisions and a substantial slowdown in the pace of job creation, we think downside risks to the Fed’s maximum employment mandate increased disproportionately as compared to the central bank’s price stability mandate.
A reduction in policy rates appears likely despite the August CPI data showing rising inflation, as risks to the maximum employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate currently outweighs price stability concerns. A shift in focus from its price stability to maximum employment mandate likely represents the change in the Fed’s reaction function to be more preemptive rather than following financial market cues or being data-dependent.
The latest labor market data, including annual revisions to payroll
myTCB® Members get exclusive access to webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to events.
September Rate Hike: Not a One and Done
September 16, 2026
August CPI Suggest September Fed Hike
September 11, 2026
Distortions Overstate Weakness in July Retail Sales
August 14, 2026
July CPI Eases, But Energy Risks Linger
August 12, 2026
Charts
The Gray Swans Tool helps C-suite executives better navigate today’s quickly developing economic, political, and technological environments.
LEARN MORE
Charts
New entrants to the labor market, automation, and worker flexibility will help end shortages.
LEARN MORE
Charts
This index identifies the risk of future labor shortages for specific occupations.
LEARN MORE
Charts
Our goal is to help members see beyond the political dynamic to inform a medium-term view that supports your strategic planning at this difficult juncture.
LEARN MORE
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences
PRESS RELEASE
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Edged Down in Augu
September 18, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for the Euro Area remained unchanged in August
September 17, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Australia Increased Again in July
September 17, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for France Increased in July
September 16, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Mexico Edged Up Slightly in August
September 16, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for Germany Increased Again in July
September 15, 2026
Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences
September 17, 2026 | Database
September Rate Hike: Not a One and Done
September 16, 2026 | Brief
Sept FOMC Preview: More Inflation Coming; the Fed Rarely Stops After One Move
September 15, 2026 | Brief
The Conference Board® Asia-Pacific Economic Forecast: September 2026
September 15, 2026 | Report
September 11, 2026 | Report
August CPI Suggest September Fed Hike
September 11, 2026 | Brief
Economy Watch: The Global Economy at a Turning Point
September 09, 2026
USMCA 2.0—Trade Uncertainty in North America
June 10, 2026
Power Shifts: From the Fed to EV Markets
May 13, 2026
The Iran Conflict: Risks for the Global Economy
April 15, 2026
