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16 September 2025 / Brief
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Copy LinkWe anticipate the Fed to deliver a 25bps cut at the 17 September FOMC meeting followed by four more cuts of a similar magnitude at each of the upcoming October, December, January and March meetings. We expect the Fed to reach the neutral policy rate of around 3% in March 2026.
Following recent sizable revisions and a substantial slowdown in the pace of job creation, we think downside risks to the Fed’s maximum employment mandate increased disproportionately as compared to the central bank’s price stability mandate.
A reduction in policy rates appears likely despite the August CPI data showing rising inflation, as risks to the maximum employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate currently outweighs price stability concerns. A shift in focus from its price stability to maximum employment mandate likely represents the change in the Fed’s reaction function to be more preemptive rather than following financial market cues or being data-dependent.
The latest labor market data, including annual revisions to payroll
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Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed.
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