Tariffs a Factor, but Still Muted in CPI; Fed to Focus on Labor Market
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  • The August CPI report continued to indicate only modest passthrough of tariffs imposed earlier this year into select categories of consumer goods, suggesting higher tariff inflation is yet to intensify in broader inflation measures.

Tariffs a Factor, but Still Muted in CPI; Fed to Focus on Labor Market

September 11, 2025

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The August CPI report continued to indicate only modest passthrough of tariffs imposed earlier this year into select categories of consumer goods, suggesting higher tariff inflation is yet to intensify in broader inflation measures.

  • Despite CPI inflation close to 3.0% y/y, the Fed is expected to cut rates next week to mitigate increasing risks to the labor market.
  • The Conference Board estimates tariffs may substantially raise inflation during the holiday season and weigh on growth later this year and early next year.
  • So far, Headline CPI only shows limited passthrough, even though core goods inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) has been rising at an accelerating pace since April.
  • Goods prices will likely continue to rise as a broader set of merchandise experiences price increases as companies pass on tariff costs onto consumers. However, disinflationary pressures evident in the services sector will likely partially offset a boost to goods prices emanating from tariffs (See Figure 1 below).
  • Incorporating both the August PPI and CPI data, we preliminarily estimate a Headline PCE inflation print of 0.2% m/m. This would result in a pick-up in the y/y r
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Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Senior US Economist

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