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The July CPI report continues to indicate passthrough of tariffs, but perhaps not as severely as in June. However, this process will continue and will likely amplify over the coming months. Meanwhile, services disinflation appears to be ebbing, which could intensify overall inflationary pressures moving forward.

July CPI data showed that tariffs continued to creep into data

August 12, 2025

The July CPI report continues to indicate passthrough of tariffs, but perhaps not as severely as in June. However, this process will continue and will likely amplify over the coming months. Meanwhile, services disinflation appears to be ebbing, which could intensify overall inflationary pressures moving forward.

Figure 1. Services Disinflation Bottoms Out as Goods Inflation Rises

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Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, The Conference Board.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The Conference Board estimates that tariffs may substantially raise inflation in the coming months. July CPI data showed an acceleration in Core CPI, in both month-on-month (m/m) and year-on-year (y/y) terms.
  • Goods prices will likely continue to rise as a broader set of merchandise sees price increases. If disinflationary pressures in the services sector stall, then the overall impact on topline inflation will be even more pronounced.
  • The Fed will have to continue to weigh levitating inflation data against softening labor market indicators. Increasin
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Author

Erik Lundh

Erik Lundh

Senior Economist, Global

Read BioErik Lundh

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