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06 March 2026 / Brief

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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Payrolls growth remains close to zero after accounting for some one-off factors in February. Weather, striking workers and policy-driven federal government layoffs largely accounted for the latest negative payrolls reading.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Payrolls growth remains close to zero after accounting for some one-off factors in February. Weather, striking workers and policy-driven federal government layoffs largely accounted for the latest negative payrolls reading.

  • The unemployment rate increased despite a sharp drop in the participation rate over the last three months, as the unemployed struggled to find jobs. Layoffs remain low.
  • At 4.4% the unemployment rate remains close to the rate consistent with full employment, obviating the need for immediate rate cuts, particularly amid uncertainty about a potential rise in inflation amid rising energy prices.
  • The recent spike in policy uncertainty due to the war with Iran may prevent companies from raising headcounts. This could nudge the unemployment rate higher in the coming months, even as companies abstain from laying off workers.
  • This in turn could further cap growth in personal income and restrain economic performance in 2026.

Figure 1. Job Creation Trends Down to A Halt

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Source: BLS, Haver Ana

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva

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