Press Release / News
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased
17 February, 2017


The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in January 

Index Points to Continued Economic Growth in First Half of 2017

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased 0.6 percent in January to 125.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in December, and a 0.2 percent increase in November.

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased sharply again in January, pointing to a positive economic outlook in the first half of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The January gain was broad based among the leading indicators. If this trend continues, the U.S. economy may even accelerate in the near term.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in January to 114.4 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in December, and no change in November.   

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in January to 123.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in December, and a 0.2 percent increase in November. 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders 
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

 

For full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membershipand research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizationswith the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

The next release is scheduled for Friday, March 17 at 10 A.M. ET.

For further information contact:

Carol Courter
1 212 339 0232
carol.courter@conference-board.org

Jonathan Liu
1 212 339 0257
Jonathan.liu@conference-board.org

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Download

Technical Notes
Underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs

Press Release
With graph and summary table

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Leading Economic Index for:

  • Australia 0.1%
  • Brazil 1.8%
  • China 1.1%
  • Euro Area 0.5%
  • France 0.3%
  • Germany 0.2%
  • Global 0.2%
  • India 0.7%
  • Japan 0.3%
  • Korea 0.2%
  • Mexico 0.4%
  • Spain 0.1%
  • U.K. 0.1%
  • U.S. 0.4%
  • International Labor Comparisons:
  • Visit ILC website
  • Productivity:
  • Visit Total Economy Database™ website
  • Global Economic Outlook:
  • Visit Global Economic Outlook website