Retail Sales Show Consumer Resilience amid Tariffs
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In June, a solid increase in retail sales shows consumers were still spending amid the first signs of tariff pressures. Nonetheless, some signs of slowing are emerging, particularly in categories most affected by tariffs.

Retail Sales Show Consumer Resilience amid Tariffs

July 17, 2025

In June, a solid increase in retail sales shows consumers were still spending amid the first signs of tariff pressures. Nonetheless, some signs of slowing are emerging, particularly in categories most affected by tariffs.

Figure 1.  Consumer Spending Slowing, but Still Solid

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Sources: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, The Conference Board, 2025

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Despite an upside surprise on retail sales in June, the latest data point to continued deceleration in consumer spending growth in the first half of the year relative to a more robust pace in H2 2024 (See Figure 1 above).
  • Adjusted for inflation, real retail sales (deflated by CPI) increased by 0.4% in June. Real retail sales for Q2 as a whole were 0.5% (on an annualized basis) above the average level of real sales in Q1. Real sales in Q1 saw a 2.1% decline. We estimate overall real consumer spending growth will remain less robust than last year’s going into H2 2025 (around
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Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva

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