A Tale of Two CPIs: Goods Inflation Dwarfed by Services
Our Privacy Policy has been updated! The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy. For more information on how The Conference Board collects and uses personal data, please visit our privacy policy. By continuing to use this Site or by clicking "ACCEPT", you acknowledge our privacy policy and consent to the use of cookies. 
Our Privacy Policy has been updated! Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy and our privacy policy. 
TCB Tourch
Loading...
  •  
    • NORTH AMERICA
    • EUROPE
    • ASIA

  • 2

    Close
    • Insights
        • Insights
        • Explore by Center
          • Explore by Center

          • The CEO Center

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

          • Marketing & Communications

          • The Conference Board of Canada
        • Explore by Content Type
          • Explore by Content Type

          • Reports

          • Upcoming Webcasts

          • On Demand Webcasts

          • Podcasts

          • Charts & Infographics

          • Explore All Research

          • Economic Indicators
        • Trending Topics
          • Trending Topics

          • Artificial Intelligence (AI) Hub

          • Climate Hub

          • Navigating Washington Hub

          • Geopolitics Hub

          • US Economic Forecast

          • Explore All Trending Topics

    • Events
        • Events
        • Upcoming Events
          • Upcoming Events

          • The AI Leadership Summit

          • Future: Enterprise & AI 2026

          • Employee Well-Being 2026

          • Innovation Awards Dinner

          • 2027: A Year in Preview

          • Explore All Upcoming Events

        • Member-Exclusive Programs
          • Member-Exclusive Programs

          • Center Briefings

          • Expert Briefings

          • Experts Live

          • Roundtables

          • Working Groups

          • View All Member-Exclusive Programs

        • Explore More
          • Explore More

          • View All Upcoming Events, Programs, and Webcasts

          • TCB Speaker Bureau

          • Sponsor a Program

    • Data
        • Data

        • All Data

        • Data Central

        • Consumer Confidence Index®

        • TCB Benchmarking

        • Recession & Growth Trackers

        • Global Economic Outlook

        • Leading Economic Indicators

        • Help Wanted OnLine

        • Labor Markets

        • Measure of CEO Confidence

        • Global Gray Swans Tool

        • CMO+CCO Meter Dashboard

    • Centers
        • Centers
        • Our Centers
          • Our Centers

          • The CEO Center

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

          • Marketing & Communications

          • The Conference Board of Canada
    • Councils
        • Councils
        • Find a Council
          • Find a Council

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

          • Marketing & Communications

          • Canada Councils

          • Explore All Councils

        • Council Membership
          • Council Membership

          • What is a Council?

          • Benefits of Council Membership

          • Apply to a Council

    • Membership
        • Membership
        • Types of Membership
          • Types of Membership

          • Membership at a Glance

          • Executive

          • C-Suite

          • Leadership Team

          • Council

          • Higher Education

          • Insights

        • Already a Member?
          • Already a Member?

          • Check if Your Organization is a Member

          • Sign In to myTCB®

          • Executive Communities

          • Member-Exclusive Programs

          • Refer a Leader - Earn a Reward

    • About Us
        • About Us
        • Who We Are
          • Who We Are

          • About Us

          • In the News

          • Press Releases

          • Our History

          • Support Our Work

          • Locations

          • The Conference Board of Canada

          • Contact Us

        • Our Community
          • Our Community

          • Our Leadership

          • Our Experts

          • TCB Speaker Bureau

          • Trustees

          • Voting Members

          • Global Counsellors

          • Careers

          • This Week @ TCB

          • Continuing Education Credits (CEUs)

    • Careers
    • This Week @ TCB
    • Sign In to myTCB®
      • NORTH AMERICA
      • EUROPE
      • ASIA
    • Insights
      • Insights
      • Explore by Center
        • Explore by Center

        • The CEO Center

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

        • Marketing & Communications

        • The Conference Board of Canada

      • Explore by Content Type
        • Explore by Content Type

        • Reports

        • Upcoming Webcasts

        • On Demand Webcasts

        • Podcasts

        • Charts & Infographics

        • Explore All Research

        • Economic Indicators
      • Trending Topics
        • Trending Topics

        • Artificial Intelligence (AI) Hub

        • Climate Hub

        • Navigating Washington Hub

        • Geopolitics Hub

        • US Economic Forecast

        • Explore All Trending Topics

    • Events
      • Events
      • Upcoming Events
        • Upcoming Events

        • The AI Leadership Summit

        • Future: Enterprise & AI 2026

        • Employee Well-Being 2026

        • Innovation Awards Dinner

        • 2027: A Year in Preview

        • Explore All Upcoming Events

      • Member-Exclusive Programs
        • Member-Exclusive Programs

        • Center Briefings

        • Expert Briefings

        • Experts Live

        • Roundtables

        • Working Groups

        • View All Member-Exclusive Programs

      • Explore More
        • Explore More

        • View All Upcoming Events, Programs, and Webcasts

        • TCB Speaker Bureau

        • Sponsor a Program

    • Data
      • Data

      • All Data

      • Data Central

      • Consumer Confidence Index®

      • TCB Benchmarking

      • Recession & Growth Trackers

      • Global Economic Outlook

      • Leading Economic Indicators

      • Help Wanted OnLine

      • Labor Markets

      • Measure of CEO Confidence

      • Global Gray Swans Tool

      • CMO+CCO Meter Dashboard
    • Centers
      • Centers
      • Our Centers
        • Our Centers

        • The CEO Center

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

        • Marketing & Communications

        • The Conference Board of Canada

    • Councils
      • Councils
      • Find a Council
        • Find a Council

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

        • Marketing & Communications

        • Canada Councils

        • Explore All Councils

      • Council Membership
        • Council Membership

        • Benefits of Council Membership

        • Apply to a Council

        • Our Program Directors

        • Refer a Leader - Earn a Reward

    • Membership
      • Membership
      • Types of Membership
        • Types of Membership

        • Membership at a Glance

        • Executive

        • C-Suite

        • Leadership Team

        • Council

        • Higher Education

        • Insights

      • Already a Member?
        • Already a Member?

        • Check if Your Organization is a Member

        • Sign In to myTCB®

        • Executive Communities

        • Member-Exclusive Programs

        • Refer a Leader - Earn a Reward

    • About Us
      • About Us
      • Who We Are
        • Who We Are

        • About Us

        • In the News

        • Press Releases

        • This Week @ TCB

        • Our History

        • Support Our Work

        • Locations

        • The Conference Board of Canada

        • Contact Us

      • Our Community
        • Our Community

        • Our Leadership

        • Our Experts

        • TCB Speaker Bureau

        • Trustees

        • Voting Members

        • Global Counsellors

        • Careers

        • This Week @ TCB

        • Continuing Education Credits (CEUs)

    • Careers
    • Sign In to myTCB®
    • Download TCB Insights App
  • Insights
    Insights

    Our research and analysis have helped the world's leading companies navigate challenges and seize opportunities for over 100 years.

    • Explore by Center
    • The CEO Center
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    • Marketing & Communications
    • The Conference Board of Canada
    • Explore by Content Type
    • Reports
    • Upcoming Webcasts
    • On Demand Webcasts
    • Podcasts
    • Charts & Infographics
    • Economic Indicators
    • Trending Topics
    • Artificial Intelligence (AI) Hub
    • Climate Hub
    • Navigating Washington Hub
    • Geopolitics Hub
    • US Economic Forecast
    • Explore All Trending Topics
  • Events
    Events

    Our in-person and virtual events offer unmatched opportunities for professional development, featuring top experts and practitioners.

    • Upcoming Events

      • The AI Leadership Summit

      November 17 - 18, 2026

      Future: Enterprise & AI 2026

      November 18, 2026

      Employee Well-Being 2026

      December 07 - 09, 2026

      Innovation Awards Dinner

      January 19 - 20, 2027

      2027: A Year in Preview

      January 20, 2027

    • Member-Exclusive Programs
    • Center Briefings
    • Expert Briefings
    • Experts Live
    • Roundtables
    • Working Groups
    • View All Member-Exclusive Programs
    • Explore More
    • View All Upcoming Events, Programs, and Webcasts
    • TCB Speaker Bureau
    • Sponsor a Program
    • Explore by Type
    • Events
    • Webcasts
    • Podcasts
    • Member-Exclusive Programs
    • Center Briefings
    • Expert Briefings
    • Experts Live
    • Roundtables
    • Working Groups
    • View All Member-Exclusive Programs
  • Data
    Corporate Disclosure Data

    TCB Benchmarking

    Real-time data visualizations to benchmark your governance, compensation, environmental, human capital management (HCM) and social practices against US public companies.

    Economic Data

    All Data

    Data Central

    One-stop portal for the entire suite of indicators

    Consumer Confidence Index®

    Labor Markets

    Measure of CEO Confidence

    Global Gray Swans Tool

    Prepare for high-impact events

     

    Recession & Growth Trackers

    Current & future state of 16 economies

    Global Economic Outlook

    Growth outlooks for 77 economies

    Leading Economic Indicators

    State of the business cycle for 12 global economies across Asia and Europe

    Help Wanted OnLine

    Status of the US job market

    Other Featured Data

    CMO+CCO Meter Dashboard

  • Centers
    Centers

    Centers offer access to world-class experts, research, events, and senior executive communities.

    Our Centers
    • The CEO Center
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    • Marketing & Communications
    • The Conference Board of Canada
  • Councils
    Councils

    Councils are invitation-only, peer-led communities of senior executives that come together to exchange knowledge, accelerate career development, and advance their function.

    Find a Council
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    • Marketing & Communications
    • Canada Councils
    • Explore All Councils
    Council Membership
    • Benefits of Council Membership
    • Apply to a Council
    • Our Program Directors
    • Refer a Leader - Earn a Reward
  • Membership
    Membership

    Membership in The Conference Board arms top executives and their teams with an arsenal of knowledge, networks, and expertise that's unmatched in scope and depth.

    • Types of Membership
    • Membership at a Glance
    • Executive
    • C-Suite
    • Leadership Team
    • Council
    • Higher Education
    • Insights
    • Already a Member?
    • Check if Your Organization is a Member
    • Sign in to myTCB®
    • Executive Communities
    • Member-Exclusive Programs
    • Refer a Leader - Earn a Reward
  • About Us
    About Us

    The Conference Board is the global, nonprofit think tank and business membership organization that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead®. For over 100 years, our cutting-edge research, data, events and executive networks have helped the world's leading companies understand the present and shape the future.

    • Who We Are
    • About Us
    • In the News
    • Press Releases
    • Our History
    • Support Our Work
    • Locations
    • The Conference Board of Canada
    • Contact Us
    • Our Community
    • Our Leadership
    • Our Experts
    • TCB Speaker Bureau
    • Trustees
    • Voting Members
    • Careers
    • This Week @ TCB
    • Continuing Education Credits (CEUs)
Check if You're a Member
Create Account
Forgot Your Password?

Members of The Conference Board get exclusive access to the full range of products and services that deliver Trusted Insights for What's Ahead ® including webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to conferences and events.

Economic Data & Analysis

A Tale of Two CPIs: Goods Inflation Dwarfed by Services

15 July 2025 / Brief

Download Brief
  • Email
  • Linkedin
  • Facebook
  • X
  • Copy Link

The June CPI report clearly indicated a passthrough of tariffs imposed earlier this year into select categories of consumer goods, suggesting inflation may stay elevated over the remainder of the year. Additional tariffs due in August would filter into consumer inflation going into the holiday season, posing risks of a significant slowdown in growth by year-end. Disinflation in services continued to provide an offset to goods inflation with consumers shying away from more discretionary purchases. 

The June CPI report clearly indicated a passthrough of tariffs imposed earlier this year into select categories of consumer goods, suggesting inflation may stay elevated over the remainder of the year. Additional tariffs due in August would filter into consumer inflation going into the holiday season, posing risks of a significant slowdown in growth by year-end. Disinflation in services continued to provide an offset to goods inflation with consumers shying away from more discretionary purchases. 

Figure 1. Services Disinflation Offsets Rising Goods Inflation

alt=

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, The Conference Board.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The Conference Board estimates tariffs may substantially raise inflation in the coming months. Despite a fifth consecutive downside surprise on Core CPI, the data shows goods inflation is rising on the back of merchandise most prone to tariffs.
  • Rising prices over the summer will likely weigh on demand. Additional tariffs scheduled to go into effect on August 1 would raise prices further going into the holiday season. Companies usually stock up at the end of the summer for the holiday season.
  • Goods prices will likely continue to rise as a broader set of merchandise sees price increases. However, disi

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva

This publication is only available to Members. Please sign in to your myTCB® account to access it. To learn more about becoming a Member, click here. To check if your company is a Member, click here.

Sign In

Forgot your password

Create An Account

 

Keep my computer signed in

Forgot your password

Create An Account

myTCB® Members get exclusive access to webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to events.

Great News!

You already have an account with The Conference Board.

Please try to login in with your email or click here if you have forgotten your password.

Create An Account



 

By Clicking 'Create Account', You Agree To Our Terms Of Use

Create Account

More From This Series

Brief

Q3 GDP Validates Fed’s “Strong” Assessment, Real Income Drop Augurs Slowdown

October 29, 2026

Brief

October FOMC Decision: Fed on Hold, But Not Done

October 28, 2026

Brief

Retail Sales Signal Healthy Q3 Consumer Spending

October 15, 2026

Brief

Hotter-than-Expected September CPI Reopens October Hike Debate

October 14, 2026

Brief

August PCE Portends Further Hikes Remain Likely

September 30, 2026

Brief

September Rate Hike: Not a One and Done

September 16, 2026

View Less View More

Charts

Global Gray Swans Tool

The Gray Swans Tool helps C-suite executives better navigate today’s quickly developing economic, political, and technological environments.

LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration

Charts

Labor Shortages Risk Tool

New entrants to the labor market, automation, and worker flexibility will help end shortages.

LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration

Charts

Future Occupational Labor Shortages Risk Index (database)

This index identifies the risk of future labor shortages for specific occupations.

LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration

Charts

US-China Gray Swans Watchlist - Risk Assessment Tool

Our goal is to help members see beyond the political dynamic to inform a medium-term view that supports your strategic planning at this difficult juncture.

LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration
  • Tags
  • Economic Data & Analysis
  • Global Economic Outlook
  • Consumer Attitudes & Behaviors
  • Consumer Dynamics
  • Global Economy

U.S. Economic Indicators

  • Consumer Confidence + 7.5 pts
  • Employment Trends Index - 0.47 %
  • Help Wanted OnLine + 3.4 %
  • Leading Economic Index 0.0 %
  • Measure of CEO Confidence - 6.0 pts

    • Innovation and Productivity

    Total Economy Database

    Global Economic Outlook

    Global Economic Outlook

    Global Economic Indicators

  • Australia -0.3%
  • Brazil -0.2%
  • China -0.1%
  • Euro Area -0.1%
  • France +0.2%
  • Germany 0.0%
  • Global 0.0%
  • India +0.6%
  • Japan +1.4%
  • Korea -0.6%
  • Mexico +1.3%
  • Spain 0.0%
  • U.K. -0.1%
  • U.S. 0.0%

    • Economic Indicator Calendar

    All release times displayed are Eastern Time


    Related Content

    Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences

    Image

    Recession & Growth Trackers
    Image

    US Leading Indicators
    Image

    Help Wanted OnLine®
    View less View More

    Press Releases / In the News

    PRESS RELEASE

    The Global LEI Was Unchanged in September According to the Advanced Estimate

    October 29, 2026

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for China Ticked Down in September

    October 28, 2026

    PRESS RELEASE

    US Consumer Confidence Increased in October

    October 27, 2026

    PRESS RELEASE

    The LEI for India Increased in September

    October 26, 2026

    PRESS RELEASE

    The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Was Flat in Sept

    October 22, 2026

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for Mexico Increased in September

    October 20, 2026

    View Less View More
    Data central

    Subscribe to Access Data Central & Chart Reports

    Your centralized, one-stop portal for accessing and exporting The Conference Board global suite of monthly and quarterly economic data. Get up to speed on critical trends—anytime, anywhere—with customizable real-time datasets.

    Upcoming Events

    Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences

    Webcast

    Economy Watch: Leading Indicators & Leading Risks for the Year Ahead

    November 12, 2026 06:00 AM ET (New York)

    Webcast

    Trade, Energy, and Supply Chain Risks to Watch in 2027

    December 02, 2026 07:00 AM ET (New York)

    Expert Briefing

    Is AI Bad for the Environment?
    Expert Briefing

    What Does it Take to Achieve Net-Zero?
    Expert Briefing

    Green House Gases: Types, Mitigation, and Opportunity
    Expert Briefing

    What’s Keeping CEOs Up At Night?
    Expert Briefing

    What’s driving inflation?
    Expert Briefing

    Inflation: What it Means for the US Economy and Your Business
    Expert Briefing

    All Tapped Out: How Can Businesses Manage Water Supply Constraints?
    Expert Briefing

    What Are US Consumers Thinking, Feeling, and Doing?
    Expert Briefing

    Environmental Threats to Business
    Expert Briefing

    US Infrastructure: What's Broken, How to Fix It, How to Navigate it
    Expert Briefing

    Charging Forward: The Durability of Global EV Demand Amid Shifting Supply
    Expert Briefing

    Envisioning the Global Energy Transition
    Expert Briefing

    The Future of Cities
    Expert Briefing

    Labor Demand Deep Dive from Help Wanted OnLine®
    Webcast

    Economy Watch: Leading Indicators & Leading Risks for the Year Ahead

    November 12, 2026 06:00 AM ET (New York)

    Webcast

    Trade, Energy, and Supply Chain Risks to Watch in 2027

    December 02, 2026 07:00 AM ET (New York)

    Expert Briefing

    Is AI Bad for the Environment?

    Explore More on this Topic

    Publications

    The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy

    The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy

    October 30, 2026 | Report

    Global Forecast Update

    Global Forecast Update

    October 30, 2026 | Report

    Global LEI Report

    Global LEI Report

    October 29, 2026 | Report

    Q3 GDP Validates Fed’s “Strong” Assessment, Real Income Drop Augurs Slowdown

    Q3 GDP Validates Fed’s “Strong” Assessment, Real Income Drop Augurs Slowdown

    October 29, 2026 | Brief

    October FOMC Decision: Fed on Hold, But Not Done

    October FOMC Decision: Fed on Hold, But Not Done

    October 28, 2026 | Brief

    China Consumption Quarterly Roundup: Q3 2026

    China Consumption Quarterly Roundup: Q3 2026

    October 28, 2026 | Report

    View Less View More

    On Demand Webcasts, Podcasts and Videos

    The US Midterm Elections – “It’s the Economy, Stupid”

    October 14, 2026

    Economy Watch: The Global Economy at a Turning Point

    September 09, 2026

    USMCA 2.0—Trade Uncertainty in North America

    June 10, 2026

    Labor Markets Watch: AI Adoption & Talent Expectations

    May 14, 2026

    Power Shifts: From the Fed to EV Markets

    May 13, 2026

    The Iran Conflict: Risks for the Global Economy

    April 15, 2026

    View Less View More

    This publication is available to non-Members, but you must be signed in. Please sign in or create an account.

    Conference Board Sample Web Chat
    chatbot-Icon
    TCB Logo
    chatbot-Icon
    C-Suite Insights - Sign up to receive weekly C-Suite Insights newsletters, updates, surveys, and other relevant email communications. Unsubscribe any time
    WHO WE ARE
    • About Us
    • Our History
    • Our Experts
    • Our Leadership
    • In the News
    • Press Releases
    • Locations
    EXPLORE
    • Membership
    • Centers
    • Councils
    • Reports
    • Events
     
    • Webcasts
    • Podcasts
    • Data
    • Ask TCB
    • This Week @ TCB
    CONTACT US
    • North America
      +1 212 759 0900
      customer.service@tcb.org
    • EMEA
      +32 2 675 5405
      brussels@tcb.org
    • Asia
      Hong Kong | +852 2804 1000
      Singapore | +65 8298 3403
      service.ap@tcb.org
    CAREERS
    • See Open Positions
    Terms Of Use | Privacy Policy | Event Code of Conduct | Trademarks
    © 2026 The Conference Board Inc. All rights reserved. The Conference Board and torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board.
    The use of all The Conference Board data and materials is subject to the Terms of Use. Reprint requests are reviewed individually and may be subject to additional fees.The Conference Board reserves the right to deny any request.
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Event Code of Conduct | Trademarks
    © 2026 The Conference Board Inc. All rights reserved. The Conference Board and torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board.
    The use of all data from The Conference Board data and materials is subject to the Terms of Use. Reprint requests are reviewed individually and may be subject to additional fees.The Conference Board reserves the right to deny any request.

    Thank you for signing up. You will now receive CEO Insights for What's Ahead every Wednesday morning. You can unsubscribe at any time or manage your preferences to receive more content from The Conference Board.

    Important: Your Membership subscription payment is past due. We have not yet received your Membership payment. Please click the button below to pay your invoice.

    Pay Invoice

    Announcing The Conference Board AI Virtual Conference Series

    Explore the Impact of AI on Your Business

    Members receive complimentary registration - Learn more >>