A Tale of Two CPIs: Goods Inflation Dwarfed by Services
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A Tale of Two CPIs: Goods Inflation Dwarfed by Services

15 July 2025 / Brief

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The June CPI report clearly indicated a passthrough of tariffs imposed earlier this year into select categories of consumer goods, suggesting inflation may stay elevated over the remainder of the year. Additional tariffs due in August would filter into consumer inflation going into the holiday season, posing risks of a significant slowdown in growth by year-end. Disinflation in services continued to provide an offset to goods inflation with consumers shying away from more discretionary purchases. 

The June CPI report clearly indicated a passthrough of tariffs imposed earlier this year into select categories of consumer goods, suggesting inflation may stay elevated over the remainder of the year. Additional tariffs due in August would filter into consumer inflation going into the holiday season, posing risks of a significant slowdown in growth by year-end. Disinflation in services continued to provide an offset to goods inflation with consumers shying away from more discretionary purchases. 

Figure 1. Services Disinflation Offsets Rising Goods Inflation

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Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, The Conference Board.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The Conference Board estimates tariffs may substantially raise inflation in the coming months. Despite a fifth consecutive downside surprise on Core CPI, the data shows goods inflation is rising on the back of merchandise most prone to tariffs.
  • Rising prices over the summer will likely weigh on demand. Additional tariffs scheduled to go into effect on August 1 would raise prices further going into the holiday season. Companies usually stock up at the end of the summer for the holiday season.
  • Goods prices will likely continue to rise as a broader set of merchandise sees price increases. However, disi

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

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