A Tale of Two CPIs: Goods Inflation Dwarfed by Services
Our Cookie Policy has been updated! The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy. For more information on how The Conference Board collects and uses personal data, please visit our privacy policy. By continuing to use this Site or by clicking "OK", you acknowledge our privacy policy and consent to the use of cookies.  Our Privacy Policy has been updated! Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy and our privacy policy. 
TCB Tourch
Loading...
  •  
    • NORTH AMERICA
    • EUROPE
    • ASIA

  • 2

    Close
    • Insights
        • Insights
        • Explore by Center
          • Explore by Center

          • CED
            Committee for Economic Development

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

          • Marketing & Communications
        • Explore by Content Type
          • Explore by Content Type

          • Reports

          • Upcoming Webcasts

          • On Demand Webcasts

          • Podcasts

          • Charts & Infographics
        • Trending Topics
          • Trending Topics

          • Artificial Intelligence (AI)

          • Navigating Washington

          • Geopolitics

          • US Economic Forecast

          • Sustainability

          • Future of Work
    • Events
        • Events
        • Upcoming Events
          • Upcoming Events

          • Future: People Asia

          • Executive Compensation in a Disruptive World

          • CED Distinguished Leadership Awards Celebration

          • The 2025 IBI/Conference Board Health and Productivity Forum

          • People First: Reimagining Talent and Rewards

          • The AI Leadership Summit

          • Explore all Upcoming Events

        • Member-Exclusive Programs
          • Member-Exclusive Programs

          • Center Briefings

          • Experts Live

          • Roundtables

          • Working Groups

          • Expert Briefings

    • Data
        • Data

        • Consumer Confidence Index

        • Data Central

        • TCB Benchmarking

        • Employment Trends Index

        • Global Economic Outlook

        • Leading Economic Indicators

        • Help Wanted OnLine

        • Labor Markets

        • Measure of CEO Confidence

        • Human Capital Benchmarking &
          Data Analytics

        • CMO+CCO Meter Dashboard

    • Centers
        • Centers
        • Our Centers
          • Our Centers

          • Committee for Economic Development

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

          • Marketing & Communications
        • Center Membership
          • Center Membership

          • What Is a Center?

          • Benefits of Center Membership

          • Join a Center

    • Councils
        • Councils
        • Find a Council
          • Find a Council

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

          • Marketing & Communications
        • Council Membership
          • Council Membership

          • What is a Council?

          • Benefits of Council Membership

          • Apply to a Council

    • Membership
        • Membership
        • Why Become a Member?
          • Why Become a Member?

          • Benefits of Membership

          • Check if Your Organization is a Member

          • Speak to a Membership Associate
        • Types of Membership
          • Types of Membership

          • Council

          • Committee for Economic Development

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

          • Marketing & Communications

          • Insights

        • Already a Member?
          • Already a Member?

          • Sign In to myTCB®

          • Executive Communities

          • Member-Exclusive Programs

    • About Us
        • About Us
        • Who We Are
          • Who We Are

          • About Us

          • In the News

          • Press Releases

          • Our History

          • Support Our Work

          • Locations

          • Contact Us

        • Our Community
          • Our Community

          • Our Leadership

          • Our Experts

          • Trustees

          • Voting Members

          • Global Counsellors

          • Careers

          • This Week @ TCB

    • Careers
    • This Week @ TCB
    • Sign In to myTCB®
      • NORTH AMERICA
      • EUROPE
      • ASIA
    • Insights
      • Insights
      • Explore by Center
        • Explore by Center

        • CED
          Committee for Economic Development

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

        • Marketing & Communications

      • Explore by Content Type
        • Explore by Content Type

        • Reports

        • Upcoming Webcasts

        • On Demand Webcasts

        • Podcasts

        • Charts & Infographics

      • Trending Topics
        • Trending Topics

        • Artificial Intelligence (AI)

        • Navigating Washington

        • Geopolitics

        • US Economic Forecast

        • Sustainability

        • Future of Work

    • Events
      • Events
      • Upcoming Events
        • Upcoming Events

        • Future: People Asia

        • Executive Compensation in a Disruptive World

        • CED Distinguished Leadership Awards Celebration

        • The 2025 IBI/Conference Board Health and Productivity Forum

        • People First: Reimagining Talent and Rewards

        • The AI Leadership Summit

        • Explore all Upcoming Events

      • Member-Exclusive Programs
        • Member-Exclusive Programs

        • Center Briefings

        • Experts Live

        • Roundtables

        • Working Groups

        • Expert Briefings

    • Data
      • Data

      • Consumer Confidence Index

      • Data Central

      • TCB Benchmarking

      • Employment Trends Index

      • Global Economic Outlook

      • Leading Economic Indicators

      • Help Wanted OnLine

      • Labor Markets

      • Measure of CEO Confidence

      • Human Capital Benchmarking & Data Analytics

      • CMO+CCO Meter Dashboard
    • Centers
      • Centers
      • Our Centers
        • Our Centers

        • Committee for Economic Development

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

        • Marketing & Communications

      • Center Membership
        • Center Membership

        • What is a Center?

        • Benefits of Center Membership

        • Join a Center

    • Councils
      • Councils
      • Find a Council
        • Find a Council

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

        • Marketing & Communications
      • Council Membership
        • Council Membership

        • What is a Council?

        • Benefits of Council Membership

        • Apply to a Council

    • Membership
      • Membership
      • Why Become a Member?
        • Why Become a Member?

        • Benefits of Membership

        • Check if Your Organization is a Member

        • Speak to a Membership Associate

      • Types of Membership
        • Types of Membership

        • Council

        • Committee for Economic Development

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

        • Marketing & Communications

        • Insights

      • Already a Member?
        • Already a Member?

        • Sign In to myTCB®

        • Executive Communities

        • Member-Exclusive Programs
    • About Us
      • About Us
      • Who We Are
        • Who We Are

        • About Us

        • In the News

        • Press Releases

        • This Week @ TCB

        • Our History

        • Support Our Work

        • Locations

        • Contact Us

      • Our Community
        • Our Community

        • Our Leadership

        • Our Experts

        • Trustees

        • Voting Members

        • Global Counsellors

        • Careers

        • This Week @ TCB

    • Careers
    • Sign In to myTCB®
    • Download TCB Insights App
  • Insights
    Insights

    Our research and analysis have helped the world's leading companies navigate challenges and seize opportunities for over 100 years.

    Explore All Research

    Economic Indicators

    • Explore by Center
    • CED
      Committee for Economic Development
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    • Marketing & Communications
    • Explore by Content Type
    • Reports
    • Upcoming Webcasts
    • On Demand Webcasts
    • Podcasts
    • Charts & Infographics
    • Trending Topics
    • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
    • Navigating Washington
    • Geopolitics
    • US Economic Forecast
    • Sustainability
    • Future of Work
  • Events
    Events

    Our in-person and virtual events offer unmatched opportunities for professional development, featuring top experts and practitioners.

    See Everything Happening This Week

    Sponsor a Program

    • Upcoming Events

      • Future: People Asia

      September 04 - 05, 2025

      Executive Compensation in a Disruptive World

      September 16 - 17, 2025

      CED Distinguished Leadership Awards Celebration

      October 08, 2025

    •  

      • The 2025 IBI/Conference Board Health and Productivity Forum

      October 16 - 17, 2025

      People First: Reimagining Talent and Rewards

      October 16 - 17, 2025

      The AI Leadership Summit

      November 18 - 19, 2025

    • Member-Exclusive Programs
    • Center Briefings
    • Experts Live
    • Roundtables
    • Working Groups
    • Expert Briefings
    • Explore by Type
    • Events
    • Webcasts
    • Podcasts
    • Member-Exclusive Programs
    • Center Briefings
    • Experts Live
    • Roundtables
    • Working Groups
    • Expert Briefings
  • Data
    Corporate Disclosure Data

    TCB Benchmarking

    Real-time data & analytical tools to benchmark your governance, compensation, environmental, human capital management (HCM) and social practices against US public companies.

    Economic Data

    All Data

    See current direction and trends across key indicators

    Consumer Confidence Index

    US consumers' thoughts on the economy, jobs, finances and more

    Data Central

    One-stop, member-exclusive portal for the entire suite of indicators

    Labor Markets

    Covering all aspects of labor markets, from monthly development to long-term trends

    Measure of CEO Confidence

    Examines the health of the US economy from the perspective of CEOs

     

    Recession & Growth Trackers

    See the current and future state of 16 economies.

    Global Economic Outlook

    Track the latest short-, medium-, and long-term growth outlooks for 77 economies

    Leading Economic Indicators

    Track the state of the business cycle for 12 global economies across Asia and Europe

    Help Wanted OnLine

    Track the status of job markets across the US through online job listings

    Other Featured Data

    Human Capital Analytics Tools

    Tools to understand human capital management and corporate performance

    CMO+CCO Meter Dashboard

    Tracks the impact, resources, and satisfaction of CMOs and CCOs

  • Centers
    Centers

    Centers offer access to world-class experts, research, events, and senior executive communities.

    Our Centers
    • Committee for Economic Development
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    • Marketing & Communications
    Center Membership
    • What Is a Center?
    • Benefits of Center Membership
    • Join a Center
  • Councils
    Councils

    Councils are invitation-only, peer-led communities of senior executives that come together to exchange knowledge, accelerate career development, and advance their function.

    Find a Council
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    • Marketing & Communications
    Council Membership
    • What Is a Council?
    • Benefits of Council Membership
    • Apply to a Council
  • Membership
    Membership

    Membership in The Conference Board arms your team with an arsenal of knowledge, networks, and expertise that's unmatched in scope and depth.

    • Why Become a Member?
    • Benefits of Membership
    • Check if Your Organization is a Member
    • Speak to a Membership Associate
    • Types of Membership
    • Council
    • Committee for Economic Development
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    • Marketing & Communications
    • Insights
    • Already a Member?
    • Sign in to myTCB®
    • Executive Communities
    • Member-Exclusive Programs
  • About Us
    About Us

    The Conference Board is the global, nonprofit think tank and business membership organization that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead®. For over 100 years, our cutting-edge research, data, events and executive networks have helped the world's leading companies understand the present and shape the future.

    Learn more about Membership

    • Who We Are
    • About Us
    • In the News
    • Press Releases
    • Our History
    • Support Our Work
    • Locations
    • Contact Us
    • Our Community
    • Our Leadership
    • Our Experts
    • Trustees
    • Voting Members
    • Careers
    • This Week @ TCB
Check if You're a Member
Create Account
Forgot Your Password?

Members of The Conference Board get exclusive access to the full range of products and services that deliver Trusted Insights for What's Ahead ® including webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to conferences and events.

Economic Data & Analysis

Global Economy Briefs

Timely insights from the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center

  • Email
  • Linkedin
  • Facebook
  • X
  • Copy Link

The June CPI report clearly indicated a passthrough of tariffs imposed earlier this year into select categories of consumer goods, suggesting inflation may stay elevated over the remainder of the year. Additional tariffs due in August would filter into consumer inflation going into the holiday season, posing risks of a significant slowdown in growth by year-end. Disinflation in services continued to provide an offset to goods inflation with consumers shying away from more discretionary purchases. 

A Tale of Two CPIs: Goods Inflation Dwarfed by Services

July 15, 2025

The June CPI report clearly indicated a passthrough of tariffs imposed earlier this year into select categories of consumer goods, suggesting inflation may stay elevated over the remainder of the year. Additional tariffs due in August would filter into consumer inflation going into the holiday season, posing risks of a significant slowdown in growth by year-end. Disinflation in services continued to provide an offset to goods inflation with consumers shying away from more discretionary purchases. 

Figure 1. Services Disinflation Offsets Rising Goods Inflation

alt=

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, The Conference Board.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The Conference Board estimates tariffs may substantially raise inflation in the coming months. Despite a fifth consecutive downside surprise on Core CPI, the data shows goods inflation is rising on the back of merchandise most prone to tariffs.
  • Rising prices over the summer will likely weigh on demand. Additional tariffs scheduled to go into effect on August 1 would raise prices further going into the holiday season. Companies usually stock up at the end of the summer for the holiday season.
  • Goods prices will likely continue to rise as a broader set of merchandise sees price increases. However, disi
Download Brief

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva

This publication is only available to Members. Please sign in to your myTCB® account to access it. To learn more about becoming a Member, click here. To check if your company is a Member, click here.

Sign In

Forgot your password

Create An Account

 

Keep my computer signed in

Forgot your password

Create An Account

myTCB® Members get exclusive access to webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to events.

Great News!

You already have an account with The Conference Board.

Please try to login in with your email or click here if you have forgotten your password.

Create An Account



 

By Clicking 'Create Account', You Agree To Our Terms Of Use

Create Account

More From This Series

Brief

Consumers Stick to Necessities amid Rising Prices

July 31, 2025

Brief

Q2 GDP Shows Sizable Slowing Beyond Trade Fog

July 30, 2025

Brief

Hawkish Powell Looks Beyond September, Despite Two Dissents

July 30, 2025

Brief

Retail Sales Show Consumer Resilience amid Tariffs

July 17, 2025

Brief

Whiff of Stagflation in May PCE, Consumers Step Back

June 27, 2025

Brief

US Announces UK Trade Agreement Terms as 90-Day Tariff Pause Nears Its End

June 23, 2025

View Less View More

Charts

Global Gray Swans Tool

The Gray Swans Tool helps C-suite executives better navigate today’s quickly developing economic, political, and technological environments.

LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration

Charts

Future Occupational Labor Shortages Risk Index (database)

This index identifies the risk of future labor shortages for specific occupations.

LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration
  • Tags
  • Economic Data & Analysis
  • Global Economic Outlook
  • Consumer Dynamics
  • Consumer Dynamics
  • Global Economy

U.S. Economic Indicators

  • Consumer Confidence + 2.0 pts
  • Employment Trends Index - 0.59 %
  • Help Wanted OnLine - 1.8 %
  • Leading Economic Index - 0.3 %
  • Measure of CEO Confidence + 15.0 pts

    • Innovation and Productivity

    Total Economy Database

    Global Economic Outlook

    Global Economic Outlook

    Global Economic Indicators

  • Australia +0.3%
  • Brazil -0.2%
  • China -0.2%
  • Euro Area -0.5%
  • France +0.1%
  • Germany +0.8%
  • Global -0.3%
  • India +0.1%
  • Japan -0.1%
  • Korea +1.0%
  • Mexico +0.9%
  • Spain 0.0%
  • U.K. -0.3%
  • U.S. -0.3%

    • Economic Indicator Calendar

    All release times displayed are Eastern Time


    Related Content

    Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences

    Image

    Recession & Growth Trackers
    Image

    US Leading Indicators
    Image

    Help Wanted OnLine®
    View less View More

    Press Releases / In the News

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for Spain Held Steady in June

    August 08, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    Confidence Revived in Q3 but CEOs Remain Cautious

    August 07, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declines in July

    August 04, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    US Consumer Confidence Inched Up in July

    July 29, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for the Global Economy was Flat in May and Decreased in June

    July 29, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for China Decreased for a Third Month in June

    July 24, 2025

    View Less View More
    Data central

    Subscribe to Access Data Central & Chart Reports

    Your centralized, one-stop portal for accessing and exporting The Conference Board global suite of monthly and quarterly economic data. Get up to speed on critical trends—anytime, anywhere—with customizable real-time datasets.

    Upcoming Events

    Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences

    Webcast

    Economy Watch

    September 10, 2025 11:00 AM ET (New York)

    Webcast

    Window On

    September 24, 2025 12:00 PM ET (New York)

    Webcast

    Economy Watch

    October 15, 2025 11:00 AM ET (New York)

    Webcast

    Window On

    November 05, 2025 12:00 PM ET (New York)

    Webcast

    Economy Watch

    November 12, 2025 11:00 AM ET (New York)

    Webcast

    Labor Markets Watch

    November 19, 2025 01:00 PM ET (New York)

    Webcast

    Economy Watch

    December 10, 2025 11:00 AM ET (New York)

    Expert Briefing

    Is AI bad for the environment?
    Expert Briefing

    What does it take to achieve net-zero?
    Expert Briefing

    Green House Gases: Types, Mitigation, and Opportunity
    Expert Briefing

    What’s keeping CEOs up at night?
    Expert Briefing

    What’s driving inflation?
    Expert Briefing

    Inflation's Impact on the Global Economic Outlook
    Expert Briefing

    Future of Food and Water
    Expert Briefing

    What’s eating the consumer? A look at consumer confidence
    Expert Briefing

    Environmental Threats to Business
    Webcast

    Economy Watch

    September 10, 2025 11:00 AM ET (New York)

    Webcast

    Window On

    September 24, 2025 12:00 PM ET (New York)

    Webcast

    Economy Watch

    October 15, 2025 11:00 AM ET (New York)

    Explore More on this Topic

    Publications

    Economy Watch: US View (August 2025)

    Economy Watch: US View (August 2025)

    August 11, 2025 | Article

    The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy

    The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy

    August 08, 2025 | Article

    Will the New Budget Grow the US Economy?

    Will the New Budget Grow the US Economy?

    August 08, 2025 | Report

    The End of Student Loan Relief: Another Headwind for Consumer Spending

    The End of Student Loan Relief: Another Headwind for Consumer Spending

    August 07, 2025 | Quick Take

    Global Gray Swans Tool

    Global Gray Swans Tool

    August 07, 2025 | Database

    CEO Confidence Survey Quarterly Report

    CEO Confidence Survey Quarterly Report

    August 07, 2025 | Article

    View Less View More

    On Demand Webcasts, Podcasts and Videos

    US Labor Shortages Update: Skills, Aging, & Policy Impacts

    August 06, 2025

    Window On: The Business Impact of Intensifying Natural Disasters

    July 23, 2025

    Economy Watch: CEO Confidence in an Uncertain World

    June 11, 2025

    The Future of Energy in a Tariff-Fueled World

    May 28, 2025

    Labor Markets Watch: Trade Wars, Industrial Agendas, and Workforce Readiness

    May 21, 2025

    Economy Watch: US Federal Job Cuts & Labor Market Anxiety

    May 14, 2025

    View Less View More

    This publication is available to non-Members, but you must be signed in. Please sign in or create an account.

    Conference Board Sample Web Chat
    chatbot-Icon TCB Logo
    chatbot-Icon
    C-Suite Insights - Stay updated on the biggest issues facing business executives.
    ABOUT US
    • Who We Are
    • Our History
    • Our Experts
    • Our Leadership
    • In the News
    • Press Releases
    EXPLORE
    • Membership
    • Centers
    • Councils
    • TCB Benchmarking
    • Ask TCB
    • Events
    • Webcasts
    • Podcasts
    • This Week @ TCB
     
    • Events
    • Webcasts
    • Podcasts
    • This Week @ TCB
    CONTACT US
    • North America
      +1 212 759 0900
      customer.service@tcb.org
    • Europe/Africa/Middle East
      +32 2 675 5405
      brussels@tcb.org
    • Asia
      Hong Kong | +852 2804 1000
      Singapore | +65 8298 3403
      service.ap@tcb.org
    CAREERS
    • See Open Positions
    Terms Of Use | Privacy Policy | Event Code of Conduct | Trademarks
    © 2025 The Conference Board Inc. All rights reserved. The Conference Board and torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board.
    The use of all The Conference Board data and materials is subject to the Terms of Use. Reprint requests are reviewed individually and may be subject to additional fees.The Conference Board reserves the right to deny any request.
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Event Code of Conduct | Trademarks
    © 2025 The Conference Board Inc. All rights reserved. The Conference Board and torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board.
    The use of all data from The Conference Board data and materials is subject to the Terms of Use. Reprint requests are reviewed individually and may be subject to additional fees.The Conference Board reserves the right to deny any request.

    Thank you for signing up. You will now receive CEO Insights for What's Ahead every Wednesday morning. You can unsubscribe at any time or manage your preferences to receive more content from The Conference Board.

    Important: Your Membership subscription payment is past due. We have not yet received your Membership payment. Please click the button below to pay your invoice.

    Pay Invoice

    Announcing The Conference Board AI Virtual Conference Series

    Explore the Impact of AI on Your Business

    Members receive complimentary registration - Learn more >>