The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.8 percent in December 2022 to 110.7 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.8 percent in November. The LEI is now down 3.8 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2022—a much steeper rate of decline than its 2.3 percent contraction over the previous six-month period (December 2021–June 2022).
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. remained unchanged in December 2022 at 109.3 (2016=100), after a 0.1 percent decline in November. The CEI rose by 1.1 percent over the six-month period from June to December 2022, faster than its growth of 0.4 percent over the previous six months. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Only the industrial production index contributed negatively to the CEI in December.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in December 2022 to 117.9
(2016 = 100), following an increase of 0.4 percent in November. The LAG is up 2.6 percent over the six-month period from June to December 2022, much slower than its growth of 4.5 percent over the previous six months.
The majority of components continue to contribute negatively to the US LEI
The trajectory of the US LEI continues to signal a recession within the next 12 months
Comparing the business cycle indexes between the Jan 23, 2023 and Feb 1, 2023 releases: 1959-present
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org • Learn more about our mission and becoming a member
The next release is scheduled for Friday, February 17 at 10 A.M. ET
For further information contact:
Joseph DiBlasi
781.308.7935
JDiBlasi@tcb.org
With graph and summary table
February 01, 2023
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Fell in October
November 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Declined in September
October 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Inched Down Further in August
September 19, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Declined in July
August 19, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Slightly in June
July 18, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Again in May
June 21, 2024
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Charts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US rose sharply in August and remains on a rapidly rising trajectory. The strengths among the leading indic…
LEARN MORECharts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States continued to improve in August, but a recession signal derived from the index has continued t…
LEARN MORECharts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the US dropped 4.4 percent in April, following a decline of 7.4 percent in March.
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May 21, 2020 | Chart
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