Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Spain decreased by 1.2 percent in June 2022 to 97.8 (2016=100), after declining by 0.4 percent in May. The LEI decreased by 2.7 percent in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022, after increasing by 0.6 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Spain increased by 0.4 percent in June 2022 to 108.9 (2016=100), after rising by 0.4 percent in May. The CEI grew by 2.1 percent in the six-month period between December 2021 and June 2022, slower than the 2.9 percent increase between June and December 2021.

“With the sharp decline in June, the LEI for Spain points to a worsening economic outlook in the months ahead,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director for Economics at The Conference Board. “While current economic growth appears robust due to improving tourism and services activity, tighter monetary policy by the European Central Bank to counteract high inflation and the resulting slower growth in Europe, increase risks of an economic downturn in Spain. The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth in Spain at 4.6 and 1.0 percent in 2022 and 2023, respectively.”

The Spain LEI decreased in June reflecting tightening monetary policy and high inflation, signaling slower growth

The decline in the LEI was widespread across all components

The LEI decreased further, pointing to increasing risks to growth in the coming months

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Spain: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Spain include: Capital Equipment, Component of Industrial Production, Spanish Contribution to Euro M2, Spanish Equity Price Index, Long Term Government Bond Yield (inverted), Order Books Survey     , and Job Placement.

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