The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy

May 15, 2025

Tariff Inflation to Temper Growth Despite Trade Deal Cheers

We estimate sizable shocks to growth, inflation, and employment in the coming months, even as the U.S. administration reached an agreement to significantly reduce tariffs on imports from China. The Conference Board estimates tariffs may substantially lower GDP growth , raise inflation, weaken the labor market, and prompt Fed rate cuts. The latest developments also suggest the Fed may cut rates only twice this year.