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16 July 2026 / Report
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Copy LinkThe US economy entered H2 2026 with a more uneven growth profile. The transition toward investment-led growth represents one of the defining characteristics of the current expansion. Throughout the post-pandemic recovery, household consumption accounted for the majority of economic growth. Today, that leadership is gradually shifting toward businesses investing in productivity-enhancing technologies. At the macro level, productivity gains from AI are apparent in GDP and in productivity defined by non-farm business output divided by aggregate hours worked. However, for companies and workers, the magnitude of the productivity gains generated by this investment remains uncertain. Still, the growth transition should allow the economy to continue expanding despite softer consumer spending, although the resulting growth profile is likely to remain uneven across industries.U.S. Outlook: Investment Takes the Baton from Consumers
Inflation has moderated as the temporary surge in energy prices associated with the Middle East conflict has largely reversed. With hostilities resuming in the Middle East, the risk is that both overall and underlying inflation could rise.
Inflation has improved, but affordability has not. Consumers continue to face substantially higher living costs than prior to the pandemic due to elevated prices. Housing expenses remain high, homeowner insurance premiums continue to rise rapidly in many parts of the country, financing costs remain restrictive, and cumulative inflation has permanently raised the cost of many essential goods and services. Although nominal wage growth remains positive, purchasing power remains limited by elevated prices.
The labor market continues to provide an important source of stability. While unemployment remains historically low, job creation has become increasingly concentrated among a relatively small number of industries. The growing concent
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PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for France Increased in May
July 16, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Brazil increased in June
July 15, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for the UK fell again in May
July 14, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Australia Increased in May
July 14, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for Germany Increased Again in May
July 10, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Japan Rose Again in May 2026
July 09, 2026
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
This report identifies trends to help businesses prepare for an environment with more challenges for labor and capital but improvements in productivity growth.
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July 16, 2026 | Report
The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy
July 16, 2026 | Report
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July 16, 2026 | Brief
June CPI Closes the Door for July Rate Hike
July 14, 2026 | Brief
Volatility Notwithstanding, Labor Market Signals a Fed on Hold
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May Spending Rebounds, but Inflation Takes Its Toll
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USMCA 2.0—Trade Uncertainty in North America
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Power Shifts: From the Fed to EV Markets
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The Iran Conflict: Risks for the Global Economy
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