Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico decreased by 0.7 percent in June 2022 to 109.1 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.5 percent in May. However, the LEI grew by 0.4 percent in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022, a reversal from the 1.1 percent decline over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.5 percent in June 2022 to 109.5 (2016=100), after a 0.5 percent increase in May. The CEI grew by 2.7 percent in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022, following a 1.2 percent improvement between June and December 2021.

“The LEI for Mexico decreased again in June, the third consecutive decline, pointing to increased downside risks to economic growth in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Negative contributions from manufacturing inventories and financial indicators offset the improvements in the other components of the LEI, notably construction and oil prices. Falling energy prices and an impending recession in the US may weigh on the outlook for Mexico. While The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth of 2 percent for 2022, economic growth is projected to slow to under 1 percent in 2023.”

Mexico LEI declined for the third consecutive month suggesting worsening economic prospects

Declining manufacturing inventories and stock prices led the decline

The recent trajectory of the Mexico LEI points to increasing headwinds for growth

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Mexico: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

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