Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India increased by 0.3 percent in July 2022 to 151.7 (2016=100), following a 0.9 percent increase in June. The LEI improved by 5.6 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2022, faster than the 5.2 percent growth over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India decreased by 0.5 percent in July 2022 to 157.1 (2016=100), following a 5.4 percent improvement in June. The CEI increased by 18.7 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2022, a sharp reversal from the 0.8 percent contraction in the six-month period from July 2021 to January 2022 when the economy was still reeling from the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The LEI for India increased again in July, but at a much slower monthly rate,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The slowdown suggests that the economy should continue expanding, but the pace of growth is likely to moderate in the near term. Large positive contributions from financial indicators drove the gain in the LEI while the nonfinancial sectors of the economy showed weakness. Amid a worsening outlook for services, manufacturing, and trade, The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth in 2022 will reach 7.4 percent in 2022 before slowing to 4.6 percent in 2023.”

India LEI suggests the economy will continue expanding, but at a slower rate

Financial components drove the increase in the India LEI, more than offsetting declines in non-financial components and the real effective exchange rate (REER)

The trajectory of the India LEI points to continued economic growth, but the pace could decelerate

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 1 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of business cycle peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector    , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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