Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Germany decreased by 0.7 percent in April 2022 to 94.4 (2016=100), after declining by 1.3 percent in March 2022. The LEI declined by 3.7 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany decreased by 0.3 percent in April 2022 to 103.3 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent decline in March 2022. However, the CEI increased by 0.5 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.

“The LEI for Germany decreased in five of the last six months pointing to increasing recession risks in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economic Research, at The Conference Board. “Deteriorating consumer expectations and manufacturing new orders drove the latest monthly decrease, and the six-month growth rate of the LEI also declined rapidly. Persistently high inflation, especially in energy prices due to the war in Ukraine, tightening monetary policy, and continuing supply chain disruptions pose significant headwinds for the German economy. The Conference Board downgraded its real GDP growth forecast for Germany to 1.6 percent year over year for 2022 from 2.9 percent projected in February.” 

The LEI points to slower growth amid high inflation and tightening monetary policy

Germany LEI points to increasing recession risks 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include: New Orders, Yield 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Inventory Change, New Residential Construction Orders, Stock Price Index, and Gross Enterprises and Properties Income.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/    

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