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The Conference Board publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for major economies around the world.
The LEI for Germany Retreated in April
Latest Press Release
Updated: Friday, June 13, 2025
For Release 9:30 AM ET, June 13, 2025
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined by 0.2% in April 2025 to 87.1 (2016=100), reversing an increase of 0.2% in March. Over the six-month period from October 2024 to April 2025, the LEI for Germany also contracted by 0.2%, a lesser rate of decline than the 0.9% decrease over the previous six-month period, from April to October 2024.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany ticked down by 0.1% in April 2025 to 103.6 (2016=100), after rising by 0.3% in March. Over the six-month period between October 2024 and April 2025, the CEI for Germany experienced a slight 0.1% increase, improving on the 0.4% decline over the previous six-month period.
“The LEI for Germany retreated slightly in April but has been overall stable since the beginning of the year” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Stock prices and consumer confidence, which supported the Index in March, pulled back in April, but these declines were partially offset by a rebound in new orders for investment goods. German equity prices fell largely as a reaction to reciprocal tariffs announced by the US and recovered somewhat toward the end of the month after most tariffs were paused. The Index’s annual rate is much less negative than it was in 2024, suggesting lessened headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board currently projects a mild recovery in Germany with real GDP reaching 0.4% in 2025, after contracting slightly in the past two years.”
The next release is scheduled for Friday, July 11, 2025, at 9:30 A.M. ET.
The Germany LEI retreated slightly in April
Stock prices and consumer confidence pulled back in April, and were only partially offset by a rebound in new orders for investment goods
The annual rate of the Germany LEI has improved significantly since the beginning of 2024, suggesting lessened headwinds to economic growth ahead
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.
The seven components of Leading Economic Index® for Germany are:
- New Orders for Investment Goods
- Yield Spread, 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate
- Consumer Confidence Index
- Inventory Change
- New Residential Construction Orders
- Stock Price Index
- Gross Enterprises and Properties Income
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Germany are:
- Industrial Production
- Employed Persons
- Retail Trade
- Manufacturing Sales
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
