Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the Euro Area decreased by 0.7 percent in July 2022 to 113.7 (2016=100), following a decrease of 0.5 percent in June. The LEI declined by 1.6 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2022, in contrast to the increase of 4.4 percent over the previous six-months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Euro Area remained unchanged in July 2022 at 106.5 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent increase in June. The CEI grew by 0.6 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2022, following an increase of 1.1 percent from July 2021 to January 2022.

“Despite stronger than expected performance of the Euro Area economy in the first half of the year, the recent trajectory of the LEI for the Euro Area points to growth slowing and rising recession risks at the end of 2022 and early 2023,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Amid high inflation, tighter monetary policy, and energy supply disruptions, The Conference Board now projects year-over-year real GDP growth of about 0.4 percent for 2023, down from the earlier forecast of 1.0 percent.” 

The Euro Area LEI declined for the fifth consecutive month in July

Positive contributions from the yield spread and volume of order books were offset by worsening consumer expectations and low manufacturing orders

The year-over-year decline suggests increasing recession risk for the Euro Area

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Euro Area: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 1 month. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the Euro Area include: ECB Yield Spread, Consumer Expectation of General Economy, Manufacturing New Orders, Volume of Order Books, Business Expectations Survey, Eurostoxx Index, Systemic Stress Composite Indicator, Building Permits.

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About The Conference Board

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