Deep Hiring Freeze Persists on the Eve of Iran War
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Economic Data & Analysis

Deep Hiring Freeze Persists on the Eve of Iran War

31 March 2026 / Brief

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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February corroborated what consumers, who are also workers, have voiced regarding concerns about poor job availability.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February corroborated what consumers, who are also workers, have voiced regarding concerns about poor job availability.

  • The declines in job openings and hires coupled with a modest increase in layoffs leave the respective rates within the recent ranges suggesting that ‘low hire, low fire’ labor market conditions persist.
  • Most people are still working and are getting paid, suggesting the labor market remains relatively healthy.
  • A surge in uncertainty about the outlook surrounding the War in Iran may exacerbate the deep hiring freeze that was already evident on the eve of the conflict.
  • However, limited layoffs, amid falling immigration and baby boomer retirements, will likely cap the extent of the increase in the unemployment rate.

Report Highlights

A 0.2pp drop to 4.2% in the job opening rate in February followed a 0.4pp rate improvement in January from a 4.0% trough in December. This was the lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic. Job openings were broadly low across industries and regions. The hiring rate fell t

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

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