Volatility Notwithstanding, Labor Market Signals a Fed on Hold
Our Privacy Policy has been updated! The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy. For more information on how The Conference Board collects and uses personal data, please visit our privacy policy. By continuing to use this Site or by clicking "ACCEPT", you acknowledge our privacy policy and consent to the use of cookies. 
Our Privacy Policy has been updated! Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy and our privacy policy. 
TCB Tourch
Loading...
  •  
    • NORTH AMERICA
    • EUROPE
    • ASIA

  • 2

    Close
    • Insights
        • Insights
        • Explore by Center
          • Explore by Center

          • The CEO Center

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

          • Marketing & Communications
        • Explore by Content Type
          • Explore by Content Type

          • Reports

          • Upcoming Webcasts

          • On Demand Webcasts

          • Podcasts

          • Charts & Infographics

          • Explore All Research

          • Economic Indicators
        • Trending Topics
          • Trending Topics

          • Artificial Intelligence (AI)

          • Navigating Washington

          • Geopolitics

          • US Economic Forecast

          • Sustainability

          • Future of Work

          • Explore All Trending Topics

    • Events
        • Events
        • Upcoming Events
          • Upcoming Events

          • Reimagine Asia 2026: People & Business

          • CLO Governance Forum

          • Climate Under Pressure: A Corporate Fishbowl on Risk, Resilience, and Finance

          • Executive Compensation & Talent 2026

          • The Annual Employee Health Care Conference – Chicago

          • People First: Elevating Talent for the Future

          • Explore All Upcoming Events

          • TCB Speaker Bureau

          • Sponsor a Program

        • Member-Exclusive Programs
          • Member-Exclusive Programs

          • Center Briefings

          • Expert Briefings

          • Experts Live

          • Roundtables

          • Working Groups

          • View All Member-Exclusive Programs

          • View All Upcoming Events, Programs, and Webcasts

    • Data
        • Data

        • All Data

        • Data Central

        • Consumer Confidence Index®

        • TCB Benchmarking

        • Recession & Growth Trackers

        • Global Economic Outlook

        • Leading Economic Indicators

        • Help Wanted OnLine

        • Labor Markets

        • Measure of CEO Confidence

        • Global Gray Swans Tool

        • CMO+CCO Meter Dashboard

    • Centers
        • Centers
        • Our Centers
          • Our Centers

          • The CEO Center

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

          • Marketing & Communications
    • Councils
        • Councils
        • Find a Council
          • Find a Council

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

          • Marketing & Communications

          • Canada Councils

          • Explore All Councils

        • Council Membership
          • Council Membership

          • What is a Council?

          • Benefits of Council Membership

          • Apply to a Council

    • Membership
        • Membership
        • Types of Membership
          • Types of Membership

          • Membership at a Glance

          • Executive

          • C-Suite

          • Leadership Team

          • Council

          • Higher Education

          • Insights

        • Already a Member?
          • Already a Member?

          • Check if Your Organization is a Member

          • Sign In to myTCB®

          • Executive Communities

          • Member-Exclusive Programs

          • Refer a Leader - Earn a Reward

    • About Us
        • About Us
        • Who We Are
          • Who We Are

          • About Us

          • In the News

          • Press Releases

          • Our History

          • Support Our Work

          • Locations

          • The Conference Board of Canada

          • Contact Us

        • Our Community
          • Our Community

          • Our Leadership

          • Our Experts

          • TCB Speaker Bureau

          • Trustees

          • Voting Members

          • Global Counsellors

          • Careers

          • This Week @ TCB

          • Continuing Education Credits (CEUs)

    • Careers
    • This Week @ TCB
    • Sign In to myTCB®
      • NORTH AMERICA
      • EUROPE
      • ASIA
    • Insights
      • Insights
      • Explore by Center
        • Explore by Center

        • The CEO Center

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

        • Marketing & Communications

      • Explore by Content Type
        • Explore by Content Type

        • Reports

        • Upcoming Webcasts

        • On Demand Webcasts

        • Podcasts

        • Charts & Infographics

        • Explore All Research

        • Economic Indicators
      • Trending Topics
        • Trending Topics

        • Artificial Intelligence (AI)

        • Navigating Washington

        • Geopolitics

        • US Economic Forecast

        • Sustainability

        • Future of Work

        • Explore All Trending Topics

    • Events
      • Events
      • Upcoming Events
        • Upcoming Events

        • Reimagine Asia 2026: People & Business

        • CLO Governance Forum

        • Climate Under Pressure: A Corporate Fishbowl on Risk, Resilience, and Finance

        • Executive Compensation & Talent 2026

        • The Annual Employee Health Care Conference – Chicago

        • People First: Elevating Talent for the Future

        • Explore All Upcoming Events

        • TCB Speaker Bureau

        • Sponsor a Program

      • Member-Exclusive Programs
        • Member-Exclusive Programs

        • Center Briefings

        • Expert Briefings

        • Experts Live

        • Roundtables

        • Working Groups

        • View All Member-Exclusive Programs

        • View All Upcoming Events, Programs, and Webcasts

    • Data
      • Data

      • All Data

      • Data Central

      • Consumer Confidence Index®

      • TCB Benchmarking

      • Recession & Growth Trackers

      • Global Economic Outlook

      • Leading Economic Indicators

      • Help Wanted OnLine

      • Labor Markets

      • Measure of CEO Confidence

      • Global Gray Swans Tool

      • CMO+CCO Meter Dashboard
    • Centers
      • Centers
      • Our Centers
        • Our Centers

        • The CEO Center

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

        • Marketing & Communications

    • Councils
      • Councils
      • Find a Council
        • Find a Council

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

        • Marketing & Communications

        • Canada Councils

        • Explore All Councils

      • Council Membership
        • Council Membership

        • Benefits of Council Membership

        • Apply to a Council

        • Our Program Directors

        • Refer a Leader - Earn a Reward

    • Membership
      • Membership
      • Types of Membership
        • Types of Membership

        • Membership at a Glance

        • Executive

        • C-Suite

        • Leadership Team

        • Council

        • Higher Education

        • Insights

      • Already a Member?
        • Already a Member?

        • Check if Your Organization is a Member

        • Sign In to myTCB®

        • Executive Communities

        • Member-Exclusive Programs

        • Refer a Leader - Earn a Reward

    • About Us
      • About Us
      • Who We Are
        • Who We Are

        • About Us

        • In the News

        • Press Releases

        • This Week @ TCB

        • Our History

        • Support Our Work

        • Locations

        • The Conference Board of Canada

        • Contact Us

      • Our Community
        • Our Community

        • Our Leadership

        • Our Experts

        • TCB Speaker Bureau

        • Trustees

        • Voting Members

        • Global Counsellors

        • Careers

        • This Week @ TCB

        • Continuing Education Credits (CEUs)

    • Careers
    • Sign In to myTCB®
    • Download TCB Insights App
  • Insights
    Insights

    Our research and analysis have helped the world's leading companies navigate challenges and seize opportunities for over 100 years.

    Economic Indicators

    • Explore by Center
    • The CEO Center
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    • Marketing & Communications
    • Explore by Content Type
    • Reports
    • Upcoming Webcasts
    • On Demand Webcasts
    • Podcasts
    • Charts & Infographics
    • Trending Topics
    • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
    • Navigating Washington
    • Geopolitics
    • US Economic Forecast
    • Sustainability
    • Future of Work
    • Explore All Trending Topics
  • Events
    Events

    Our in-person and virtual events offer unmatched opportunities for professional development, featuring top experts and practitioners.

    View All Upcoming Events, Programs, and Webcasts

    TCB Speaker Bureau

    Sponsor a Program

    • Upcoming Events

      • Reimagine Asia 2026: People & Business

      September 10, 2026

      CLO Governance Forum

      September 10, 2026

      Climate Under Pressure: A Corporate Fishbowl on Risk, Resilience, and Finance

      September 22, 2026

    •  

      • Executive Compensation & Talent 2026

      September 24 - 25, 2026

      The Annual Employee Health Care Conference – Chicago

      September 24 - 25, 2026

      People First: Elevating Talent for the Future

      October 06 - 07, 2026

    • Member-Exclusive Programs
    • Center Briefings
    • Expert Briefings
    • Experts Live
    • Roundtables
    • Working Groups
    • View All Member-Exclusive Programs
    • Explore by Type
    • Events
    • Webcasts
    • Podcasts
    • Member-Exclusive Programs
    • Center Briefings
    • Expert Briefings
    • Experts Live
    • Roundtables
    • Working Groups
    • View All Member-Exclusive Programs
  • Data
    Corporate Disclosure Data

    TCB Benchmarking

    Real-time data visualizations to benchmark your governance, compensation, environmental, human capital management (HCM) and social practices against US public companies.

    Economic Data

    All Data

    Data Central

    One-stop, member-exclusive portal for the entire suite of indicators

    Consumer Confidence Index®

    Labor Markets

    Measure of CEO Confidence

    Global Gray Swans Tool

    Prepare for high-impact events

     

    Recession & Growth Trackers

    Current & future state of 16 economies

    Global Economic Outlook

    Growth outlooks for 77 economies

    Leading Economic Indicators

    State of the business cycle for 12 global economies across Asia and Europe

    Help Wanted OnLine

    Status of the US job market

    Other Featured Data

    CMO+CCO Meter Dashboard

  • Centers
    Centers

    Centers offer access to world-class experts, research, events, and senior executive communities.

    Our Centers
    • The CEO Center
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    • Marketing & Communications
  • Councils
    Councils

    Councils are invitation-only, peer-led communities of senior executives that come together to exchange knowledge, accelerate career development, and advance their function.

    Find a Council
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    • Marketing & Communications
    • Canada Councils
    • Explore All Councils
    Council Membership
    • Benefits of Council Membership
    • Apply to a Council
    • Our Program Directors
    • Refer a Leader - Earn a Reward
  • Membership
    Membership

    Membership in The Conference Board arms top executives and their teams with an arsenal of knowledge, networks, and expertise that's unmatched in scope and depth.

    • Types of Membership
    • Membership at a Glance
    • Executive
    • C-Suite
    • Leadership Team
    • Council
    • Higher Education
    • Insights
    • Already a Member?
    • Check if Your Organization is a Member
    • Sign in to myTCB®
    • Executive Communities
    • Member-Exclusive Programs
    • Refer a Leader - Earn a Reward
  • About Us
    About Us

    The Conference Board is the global, nonprofit think tank and business membership organization that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead®. For over 100 years, our cutting-edge research, data, events and executive networks have helped the world's leading companies understand the present and shape the future.

    • Who We Are
    • About Us
    • In the News
    • Press Releases
    • Our History
    • Support Our Work
    • Locations
    • The Conference Board of Canada
    • Contact Us
    • Our Community
    • Our Leadership
    • Our Experts
    • TCB Speaker Bureau
    • Trustees
    • Voting Members
    • Careers
    • This Week @ TCB
    • Continuing Education Credits (CEUs)
Check if You're a Member
Create Account
Forgot Your Password?

Members of The Conference Board get exclusive access to the full range of products and services that deliver Trusted Insights for What's Ahead ® including webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to conferences and events.

Economic Data & Analysis

Volatility Notwithstanding, Labor Market Signals a Fed on Hold

02 July 2026 / Brief

Download Brief
  • Email
  • Linkedin
  • Facebook
  • X
  • Copy Link

Trusted Insights for What's Ahead®

  • Labor market dynamics were little changed from May to June, despite temporary factors that muddled the headline numbers.

Trusted Insights for What's Ahead®

  • Labor market dynamics were little changed from May to June, despite temporary factors that muddled the headline numbers.

  • Despite a weaker-than-consensus gain of 57k, the report still revealed that three sectors continue to drive monthly gains, while most other industries remain on the sidelines, and layoffs remain concentrated in tech, finance and federal government.
  • Temporary factors, namely a sharp unwind in leisure and hospitality hiring, the sector most impacted by the World Cup events, pushed the headline reading below the recent trend.
  • Outside of these sectors, hiring momentum remained subdued, suggesting that labor demand is not broadening materially across the economy.
  • The unemployment rate edged down, but this too was driven by a highly unusual drop in participation rate among 25-34 year-olds, which will likely reverse in July.
  • Despite a small uptick in average hourly earnings in June, the normalization trend in wage growth, which started in 2022, remains intact.
  • Given today’s data, the Fed is likely to remain on hold

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva

This publication is only available to Members. Please sign in to your myTCB® account to access it. To learn more about becoming a Member, click here. To check if your company is a Member, click here.

Sign In

Forgot your password

Create An Account

 

Keep my computer signed in

Forgot your password

Create An Account

myTCB® Members get exclusive access to webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to events.

Great News!

You already have an account with The Conference Board.

Please try to login in with your email or click here if you have forgotten your password.

Create An Account



 

By Clicking 'Create Account', You Agree To Our Terms Of Use

Create Account

More From This Series

Brief

No Signs of Wage Inflation; Labor Market Remains Stable

August 07, 2026

Brief

Strong Payroll Growth Masks Narrow Hiring Base, Keeping the Fed on Hold

June 05, 2026

Brief

Labor Market: Maintaining Stability Amid Chaos

May 08, 2026

Brief

Volatility Aside, Labor Market Remains Stable

April 03, 2026

Brief

Deep Hiring Freeze Persists on the Eve of Iran War

March 31, 2026

Brief

Low-Hire, Low-Fire Prevails, Temporary Factors Aside

March 06, 2026

View Less View More

Charts

Global Gray Swans Tool

The Gray Swans Tool helps C-suite executives better navigate today’s quickly developing economic, political, and technological environments.

LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration

Charts

Labor Shortages Risk Tool

New entrants to the labor market, automation, and worker flexibility will help end shortages.

LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration

Charts

Future Occupational Labor Shortages Risk Index (database)

This index identifies the risk of future labor shortages for specific occupations.

LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration

Charts

US-China Gray Swans Watchlist - Risk Assessment Tool

Our goal is to help members see beyond the political dynamic to inform a medium-term view that supports your strategic planning at this difficult juncture.

LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration
  • Tags
  • Economic Data & Analysis
  • Global Economic Outlook
  • Labor Markets Charts
  • Global Economy
  • Labor Markets

U.S. Economic Indicators

  • Consumer Confidence - 1.4 pts
  • Employment Trends Index + 0.91 %
  • Help Wanted OnLine + 1.1 %
  • Leading Economic Index - 0.2 %
  • Measure of CEO Confidence + 5.0 pts

    • Innovation and Productivity

    Total Economy Database

    Global Economic Outlook

    Global Economic Outlook

    Global Economic Indicators

  • Australia +0.2%
  • Brazil +0.8%
  • China +0.1%
  • Euro Area -0.3%
  • France +0.4%
  • Germany +0.6%
  • Global -0.2%
  • India 0.0%
  • Japan -0.4%
  • Korea +1.1%
  • Mexico -2.1%
  • Spain +0.3%
  • U.K. -0.5%
  • U.S. -0.2%

    • Economic Indicator Calendar

    All release times displayed are Eastern Time


    Related Content

    Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences

    Image

    Recession & Growth Trackers
    Image

    US Leading Indicators
    Image

    Help Wanted OnLine®
    View less View More

    Press Releases / In the News

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for Japan Retreated Slightly in June 2026

    August 11, 2026

    PRESS RELEASE

    The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased in July

    August 10, 2026

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for Spain Rose Again in June

    August 07, 2026

    PRESS RELEASE

    CEO Confidence Increased in Q3 2026

    August 06, 2026

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for South Korea Increased Again in June

    August 06, 2026

    PRESS RELEASE

    The Global LEI Fell Slightly Both in May and in the Advanced Estimate for June

    July 30, 2026

    View Less View More
    Data central

    Subscribe to Access Data Central & Chart Reports

    Your centralized, one-stop portal for accessing and exporting The Conference Board global suite of monthly and quarterly economic data. Get up to speed on critical trends—anytime, anywhere—with customizable real-time datasets.

    Upcoming Events

    Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences

    Webcast

    Window On

    December 02, 2026 07:00 AM ET (New York)

    Expert Briefing

    Is AI Bad for the Environment?
    Expert Briefing

    What Does it Take to Achieve Net-Zero?
    Expert Briefing

    Green House Gases: Types, Mitigation, and Opportunity
    Expert Briefing

    What’s Keeping CEOs Up At Night?
    Expert Briefing

    What’s driving inflation?
    Expert Briefing

    Inflation: What it Means for the US Economy and Your Business
    Expert Briefing

    All Tapped Out: How Can Businesses Manage Water Supply Constraints?
    Expert Briefing

    What Are US Consumers Thinking, Feeling, and Doing?
    Expert Briefing

    Environmental Threats to Business
    Expert Briefing

    US Infrastructure: What's Broken, How to Fix It, How to Navigate it
    Expert Briefing

    Charging Forward: The Durability of Global EV Demand Amid Shifting Supply
    Expert Briefing

    Envisioning the Global Energy Transition
    Expert Briefing

    The Future of Cities
    Expert Briefing

    Labor Demand Deep Dive from Help Wanted OnLine®
    Expert Briefing

    Talent Shortages: Challenges and Strategies
    Webcast

    Window On

    December 02, 2026 07:00 AM ET (New York)

    Expert Briefing

    Is AI Bad for the Environment?
    Expert Briefing

    What Does it Take to Achieve Net-Zero?

    Explore More on this Topic

    Publications

    The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy

    The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy

    August 10, 2026 | Report

    No Signs of Wage Inflation; Labor Market Remains Stable

    No Signs of Wage Inflation; Labor Market Remains Stable

    August 07, 2026 | Brief

    CEO Confidence Survey Quarterly Report

    CEO Confidence Survey Quarterly Report

    August 06, 2026 | Article

    Sky High: Property Insurance Prices Spike

    Sky High: Property Insurance Prices Spike

    August 04, 2026 | Backgrounder

    Global LEI Report

    Global LEI Report

    July 30, 2026 | Report

    Q2 GDP and June Inflation Support September Fed Hold

    Q2 GDP and June Inflation Support September Fed Hold

    July 30, 2026 | Brief

    View Less View More

    On Demand Webcasts, Podcasts and Videos

    USMCA 2.0—Trade Uncertainty in North America

    June 10, 2026

    Labor Markets Watch: AI Adoption & Talent Expectations

    May 14, 2026

    Power Shifts: From the Fed to EV Markets

    May 13, 2026

    The Iran Conflict: Risks for the Global Economy

    April 15, 2026

    The Global Water Crisis—Mitigation and Adaptation in a World of Water Shortages

    March 25, 2026

    Priced Out: The State of US Housing Affordability

    February 11, 2026

    View Less View More

    This publication is available to non-Members, but you must be signed in. Please sign in or create an account.

    Conference Board Sample Web Chat
    chatbot-Icon
    TCB Logo
    chatbot-Icon
    C-Suite Insights - Sign up to receive weekly C-Suite Insights newsletters, updates, surveys, and other relevant email communications. Unsubscribe any time
    WHO WE ARE
    • About Us
    • Our History
    • Our Experts
    • Our Leadership
    • In the News
    • Press Releases
    • Locations
    EXPLORE
    • Membership
    • Centers
    • Councils
    • Reports
    • Events
     
    • Webcasts
    • Podcasts
    • Data
    • Ask TCB
    • This Week @ TCB
    CONTACT US
    • North America
      +1 212 759 0900
      customer.service@tcb.org
    • EMEA
      +32 2 675 5405
      brussels@tcb.org
    • Asia
      Hong Kong | +852 2804 1000
      Singapore | +65 8298 3403
      service.ap@tcb.org
    CAREERS
    • See Open Positions
    Terms Of Use | Privacy Policy | Event Code of Conduct | Trademarks
    © 2026 The Conference Board Inc. All rights reserved. The Conference Board and torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board.
    The use of all The Conference Board data and materials is subject to the Terms of Use. Reprint requests are reviewed individually and may be subject to additional fees.The Conference Board reserves the right to deny any request.
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Event Code of Conduct | Trademarks
    © 2026 The Conference Board Inc. All rights reserved. The Conference Board and torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board.
    The use of all data from The Conference Board data and materials is subject to the Terms of Use. Reprint requests are reviewed individually and may be subject to additional fees.The Conference Board reserves the right to deny any request.

    Thank you for signing up. You will now receive CEO Insights for What's Ahead every Wednesday morning. You can unsubscribe at any time or manage your preferences to receive more content from The Conference Board.

    Important: Your Membership subscription payment is past due. We have not yet received your Membership payment. Please click the button below to pay your invoice.

    Pay Invoice

    Announcing The Conference Board AI Virtual Conference Series

    Explore the Impact of AI on Your Business

    Members receive complimentary registration - Learn more >>