No Signs of Wage Inflation; Labor Market Remains Stable
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Economic Data & Analysis

No Signs of Wage Inflation; Labor Market Remains Stable

07 August 2026 / Brief

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Trusted Insights for What's Ahead®

  • Average hourly earnings eased back toward their pre-pandemic pace, underscoring the absence of meaningful wage inflation pressures.

Trusted Insights for What's Ahead®

  • Average hourly earnings eased back toward their pre-pandemic pace, underscoring the absence of meaningful wage inflation pressures.

  • Seasonal distortions, particularly in state and local education, likely exaggerated the weakness in headline payrolls. The underlying trend remains one of modest positive job growth.
  • A slower trend in payroll growth does not necessarily signal a weaker labor market. With immigration and labor force growth slowing, fewer new jobs are needed to keep unemployment stable.
  • The tradeoff, however, is slower aggregate demand growth. More subdued labor force expansion implies slower growth in consumer spending, housing demand, and overall economic activity, resulting in a lower trend rate of GDP growth.
  • Despite the 23k decline in July payrolls, healthcare and construction continued to generate job gains, while hiring across most other industries remained subdued.
  • The unemployment rate edged lower. This is not because labor market conditions improved, but due to continued declines in labor force participation caused by an ageing populati

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva

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