Volatility Aside, Labor Market Remains Stable
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Economic Data & Analysis

Volatility Aside, Labor Market Remains Stable

03 April 2026 / Brief

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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The labor market remained stable despite significant volatility in headline payrolls recently, which should allow the Fed to stay on hold, for now.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The labor market remained stable despite significant volatility in headline payrolls recently, which should allow the Fed to stay on hold, for now.

  • In March, a sharp rebound from weather-related hiring disruptions, along with striking workers returning to work, accounted for the bulk of the upside surprise in payrolls.
  • Meanwhile, policy-driven federal government layoffs continued.
  • The unemployment rate ticked down as the participation rate continued its gradual descent. Layoffs remain low.
  • The March employment report likely did not fully capture the rise in uncertainty surrounding the implications of the War in Iran for the economic outlook.
  • The data were collected during the first two weeks of the month, when the conflict may still have been perceived as a temporary disruption.
  • Since then, rising geopolitical uncertainty may lead companies to grow even more hesitant to increase headcount going forward. This could push the unemployment rate modestly higher in the coming months, even if firms refrain from outright layoffs.

Figure 1. Vola

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

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