Fed Signals It May Need to Pause
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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • “Strongly differing views” about the policy rate trajectory raises the possibility of a December pause.

Fed Signals It May Need to Pause

October 29, 2025

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • “Strongly differing views” about the policy rate trajectory raises the possibility of a December pause.

  • Chair Powell’s remarks during the press conference, suggesting that a December rate cut is “far from a foregone conclusion,” support such a view.
  • This was also reflected in two dissents: one favoring a larger rate cut and the other advocating for no change in policy rates at the October meeting.
  • If the government shutdown and the lack of government data continue, then the Fed may be more likely to keep policy rates unchanged, barring significant deterioration in the labor market.
  • Potential evidence of deterioration would have to be abundant and conclusive (e.g., evidence of mass layoffs in the Beige Book or sharp increases in jobless claims) for the Fed to keep cutting rates.
  • For now, we continue to project three 25 bps cuts at each of the upcoming December, January, and March meetings, in line with our forecast for a significant slowdown in the economy.
  • The Fed will end Quantitative Tightening (Q
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Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Senior US Economist

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