Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea declined by 0.5 percent in July 2023 to 105.9 (2016=100), following an increase of 1.3 percent in June. The LEI improved by 0.6 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2023, a reversal of the 0.9 percent decrease from July 2022 to January 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea also declined in July 2023 by 0.9 percent to 105.5 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.1 percent in June. The CEI contracted by 1.3 percent in the period between January to July 2023, after a decrease of 0.7 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for South Korea declined in July, after experiencing a substantial increase, a month earlier,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Weakness was widespread throughout both financial and non-financial components.  There were only positive contributions from exports and private construction orders. While real GDP grew by 2.4 percent (annual rate) in Q2 2023, The Conference Board downgraded year-over-year GDP growth from 1.5 to 1.3 percent in 2023. With mounting pressure on domestic demand due to elevated inflation and hawkish monetary policy, the second half of the year may exhibit less favorable economic growth.”

The South Korea LEI fell in July

The decline in the index was driven by majority of components in July

The annual growth rate of the LEI dipped , after improving in first half of this year

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for South Korea

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org