Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan decreased by 0.3 percent in February 2023 to 87.7 (2016=100), following a 0.7 percent decline in January. The LEI for Japan contracted by 5.2 percent in the six-month period ending in February 2023, following a 1.1 percent decline over the previous six months between February 2022 and August 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan increased by 0.4 percent in February 2023 to 99.3 (2016=100), reversing a 0.4 percent decrease in January. The CEI for Japan fell by 1.1 percent over the six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023, after 0.1 percent growth in the previous six-month period between February 2022 and August 2022.

“The Japan LEI declined for the sixth consecutive month in February,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Weaknesses among the non-financial components of the LEI were the main drivers of the recent decline. Although internal demand continued to improve since the last month of 2022, due to normalized post-COVID economic activities in the region, exports were sluggish reflecting slowing global demand. The Conference Board downgraded the year-over-year real GDP growth forecast for Japan to 0.7 percent in 2023 from 1.0 after downward revisions to the final quarter of 2022 was published.”

The LEI for Japan continued to decline

Recent declines in the LEI continue to be fueled by non-financial components

The Japan LEI annual growth rate edged down slightly in February

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Japan: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Business Failures, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

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About The Conference Board

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