Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:00 AM ET, June 24, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India increased by 0.4% in May 2025 to 160.5 (2016=100), after upwardly revised increase of 1.2% in April. As a result, the LEI increased by 1.2% over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, after growing only by 0.2% over the previous six-month period between May and November 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India tumbled by 5.7% in April 2025 to 147.6 (2016=100), more than reversing an increase of 5.3% in April. The Index contracted by 2.4% over the past six-month period ending in May 2025, a larger rate of decline than the 0.6% fall over the prior six months.

“The LEI for India increased in May, after being heavily revised upward in April” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Financial variables drove the Index in May, with the largest positive contribution coming from a second month of rising stock prices. The merchandise export declined in May after surging in April. Thanks to the two consecutive monthly gains in the leading index, its six-month growth moved higher into positive territory, implying that the growth tailwinds are likely to last in the second half of 2025. Therefore, and taking also into account the stronger than expected GDP growth in Q1 and the recent easing of monetary policy, The Conference Board forecasts that India’s real GDP will grow at about 6.3% in 2025, only slightly slower than in 2024.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, July 22, 2025, at 9 A.M. ET.