Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France improved by 0.3 percent in February 2023 to 118.5 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent increase in January. The LEI grew by 1.5 percent in the six-month period between August 2022 and February 2023, which was half the pace of the 3.3 percent increase in the previous six-month period (February to August 2022).

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France ticked up by 0.1 percent in February 2023 to 109.6 (2016=100), after rising by 0.1 percent in January. The CEI grew by 0.6 percent during the six-month period between August 2022 and February 2023, after growing by 0.8 percent over the previous six-month period.

“In February, the LEI for France continued its positive growth trajectory, suggesting economic growth could improve in the near term,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Both financial and non-financial components of the France LEI generally improved across the board this month. However, while core inflation is down from its peak, if it remains sticky, it could negatively impact consumer’s spending and confidence ahead.  The Conference Board currently predicts that real GDP growth will expand by 0.5 percent year-over-year in 2023.”

The France LEI improved again in February 

LEI components generally ticked up across the board in February; However, weaknesses among nonfiancnial components over the last six months have detracted from overall strength in the index 

The trajectory of the LEI for France continues to be positive, suggesting growth could strengthen in the near term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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