Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:00 AM ET, January 27, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China ticked down by 0.1% in December 2024 to 150.2 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.5% in November. Overall, the LEI declined by 1.6% over the second half of 2024, a slightly larger rate of decline than the 1.4% contraction over the first half of 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China rose by 0.7% in December 2024 to 152.9 (2016=100), following a downwardly revised  no change in November. Overall, the Index grew by 3.2% over the second half of 2024, twice the 1.6% growth rate over the first half of 2024.

“The China LEI inched down in December, continuing a nearly 3-year long trend,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The Index remained under significant pressure from the persistence of weak consumer confidence. Additionally, most other non-financial components contributed to the decline of the Index. The two exceptions were strong imports in machinery and transport equipment and higher floor space started. Despite strong year-over-year growth in the 4^th quarter, with real GDP growing by 5.4% thanks to stimulus measures, weak consumer confidence and uncertainty about US tariffs continue to weigh on the Chinese economy. As such, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in 2025.

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, February 26, 2025, at 9:00 A.M. ET

The China LEI continued to tick down in December

The persistently depressed consumer confidence continued to weigh on the Index

The semiannual growth rate of the China LEI narrowly triggered recession signal, continuing to warn of economic risks ahead

NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a six-month diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.

The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month rate of decline falls below the threshold of −3.0%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.