Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Australia, remained unchanged in June 2023 at 118.5 (2016=100), after also remaining at the same level in May. The LEI fell by 1.2 percent from December 2022 to June 2023, an accelerated rate of decline from the contraction of 0.2 percent over the previous six-month period between June and December 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased by 0.2 percent in June 2023 to 114.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.3 percent in May. The CEI grew by 0.9 percent in the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023, a continuation of the 0.6 percent gain over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Australia held steady in June,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Components of the Australia LEI were mixed in June, as positive contributions from building approvals, share prices, gross operating surplus, and the sales to inventories ratio were offset by negative contributions from money supply, rural goods exports, and the yield spread. The six-month growth trajectory of the leading index remains in decline, suggesting moderating growth ahead. Headwinds such as elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy continue to weigh on the economy.   Projected economic weakness among major trading partners also suggests tepid growth in the latter half of 2023 and into 2024. The Conference Board expects real GDP to expand in Australia at rate of 2.2 percent year-over-year in 2023, down from 3.6 percent growth in 2022.”

The LEI for Australia held steady in June

Weaknesses were offset by strengths for both financial and nonfiancial components of the Australia LEI

The trajectory of the Australia LEI is negative, suggesting headwinds to growth near-term

AboutThe Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org