Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia decreased by 0.2 percent in February 2023 to 120.0 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in January. The LEI increased by 0.8 percent from August 2022 to February 2023, maintaining its previous growth rate over the six-month period between February and August of 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia decreased by 0.1 percent in February 2023 to 113.2 (2016=100), following an identical decline in January. The CEI improved by 0.1 percent in the six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023, slowing sharply from the 1.3 percent gain in the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Australia suggests economic growth may slow in the coming months” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “Declines in share prices, the money supply, and building approvals more than offset small gains in all other components, leading to the third consecutive monthly decline in the LEI. Australia’s economy still faces headwinds such as record high inflation, faltering external demand, and potential recessions in major economies. The Conference Board forecasts annual real GDP growth in 2023 will be 2.3 percent, down from 3.7 percent in 2022.”

The LEI for Australia fell slightly in January

The LEI fell as share prices, the money supply, and building approvals contributed negatively

The year-over-year growth rate of the Australia LEI fell from the highs seen in 2021 as headwinds gather

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

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