Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the United Kingdom decreased by 0.7 percent in July to 81.1 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decline in June. The LEI contracted by 2.3 in the six-month period ending in July 2022, a reversal from a growth of 2.0 percent over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom remained unchanged in July at 104.3 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in June. The CEI grew by 0.4 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2022, after increasing by 0.2 percent in the previous six-month period.

“A fifth consecutive decline of the UK LEI in July points to growing recession risk in late 2022 and early 2023,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Eroding consumer sentiment and increased pessimism about housing sales have been the major drivers of the decline. Amid high inflation, tighter monetary policy, and rising uncertainty, The Conference Board downgraded its forecast of real GDP growth to 3.3 percent from 3.6 percent year-over-year in 2022 and is forecasting a contraction for 2023.” 

The UK LEI declined in July for a fifth consecutive month, signaling further slowing in growth

Eroding consumer confidence and housing sales expectations were the main drivers of the decline 

The declining trajectory of the LEI shows elevated recession risk heading into 2023

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for The United Kingdom: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for The United Kingdom include: Unemployment Claimant Counts, Weekly Working Hours, General Economic Situation, Stock Prices, Yield Spread, Productivity, Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations, Housing Sales Expectation.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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