Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, April 15, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the United Kingdom decreased by 0.3% in February 2025 to 75.4 (2016=100), after being unchanged in January (an upward revision). Overall, the UK LEI contracted by 0.9% over the six-month period between August 2024 and February 2025, after declining by 1.0% over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom rose by 0.3% in February 2025 to 107.8 (2016=100), following a 0.2% gain in January. As a result, the CEI for the UK expanded by 1.1% over the six-month period between August 2024 and February 2025, after increasing by 1.2% growth rate over the previous six-month period, between February and August 2024.

“The UK LEI fell in February, resuming its downward trend,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Unemployment claims, housing sales expectations, and consumer confidence contributed negatively to the Index for a second consecutive month.  On the brighter side, stock prices supported the Index for a third month, while the other four components of the UK LEI were flat or slightly positive in February. Despite being still negative and losing some momentum, the 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI remained on an upward trajectory, suggesting that headwinds to growth, while present, may lessen. Overall, the LEI reading suggests that the UK economy continues to lack momentum. The Conference Board expects economic growth to be 1% in 2025, slightly down from 1.1% in 2024, in a context of high global uncertainty and still elevated inflation.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, May 13, 2025, at 9:30 A.M. ET.

The UK LEI decreased in February

Unemployment claims, housing sales expectations, and consumer confidence contributed negatively to the Index in February

The 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI remained on an upward trajectory suggesting that headwinds to growth may lessen

NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds–duration, depth, and diffusion–for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI's component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a six-month diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.

The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies at or below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI's six-month rate of decline falls below the threshold of −4.1%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K.

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The eight components of Leading Economic Index® for the U.K. are:

• Unemployment Claimant Counts
• Weekly Working Hours
• GfK Consumer Survey: General Economic Situation: Next 12 months
• Stock prices, FTSE all share prices index
• Yield Spread
• Productivity, Whole Economy
• Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations
• Housing Sales Expectation for next 3 months^©

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the U.K. are:

• Industrial Production
• Retail Sales
• Employment
• Real Household Disposable Income

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org