Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, September 11, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.3 percent in July 2024 to 75.4 (2016=100), following three consecutive 0.1 percent declines in April, May and June. As a result, the LEI for the UK contracted by 0.8 percent over the six-month period between January and July 2024, but still at a smaller rate of decline compared to the 2.1 percent contraction over the previous six-month period.  

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom in contrary rose by 0.2 percent in July 2024 to 105.2 (2016=100), continuing an increase of 0.3 percent in June. Overall, the CEI for the UK grew by 1.0 percent over the six-month period between January and July 2024, at ten times higher rate than the 0.1 percent increase over the six-month period from July 2023 to January 2024.

“The U.K. LEI declined again in July, maintaining its mild downward trend,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The weakness was driven by labor market components (unemployment claims and working hours) as in the previous two months. In addition, the negative yield spread continued to pull down index as has been the case since the beginning of 2023. However, for the second month in a row, consumers’ assessment of economic conditions and housing sales expectations improved after having weighed on the Index for well over two years. The LEI’s annual growth rate, though still negative, has improved substantially since the beginning of the year, indicating still present but lessening headwinds to growth. Overall, the UK economy should continue to expand at a moderate pace in the second half of 2024.”

The next release is scheduled for Friday, October 11, 2024, at 9:30 A.M. ET.