The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council fell to 46 in Q4 2023, down from 48 in the third quarter. The Measure remained below a reading of 50, which indicates that CEOs maintain a cautious outlook regarding what’s ahead for the economy. (A reading below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses.) A total of 136 CEOs participated in the Q4 survey, which was fielded from September 18 through October 2.
Compared to last quarter, CEOs’ view of current economic conditions was a tad less enthusiastic in the latest survey, and they carried forward a cautious outlook for the economy ahead. In Q4, 18% of CEOs reported general economic conditions to be better than they were six months ago, down from 28% in Q3. At the same time, future expectations became more pessimistic: While 19% of CEOs expect future conditions to improve, similar to last quarter, 47% expect general economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, up from 39% in Q3.
“A large majority of CEOs continue to expect a US recession ahead—but that consensus receded notably over the course of 2023,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Trustee of The Conference Board. “In Q4, 72% of CEOs reported that they are preparing for a US recession over the next 12-18 months, compared to 93% at the start of the year. Of those, 69% expect a brief and shallow recession, with limited global spillovers, and only 3% are preparing for a deep US recession. The share of CEOs who are not preparing for any recession in the next 12-18 months rose to 28% in Q4, up from just 6% in Q1 2023.”
“CEOs are still hiring amid a tight labor market, with 38% of CEOs expecting to expand their workforce over the next 12 months, down slightly from 40% in Q3,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist of The Conference Board. “Only 13% of CEOs expect to cut workers, with the remaining 49% of CEOs anticipating little change in their workforces—a likely sign of labor hoarding. Attracting qualified workers has become somewhat less difficult for companies: While 71% of CEOs still plan to raise wages by more than 3% over the next year, the Q4 survey found a slight uptick in the number looking to make smaller increases or even no changes in wages.”
Current Conditions
CEOs’ assessment of general economic conditions were slightly less enthusiastic in Q4:
CEOs rated conditions in their own industries similarly a tad lower than last quarter:
Future Conditions
CEOs’ expectations about the short-term economic outlook darkened slightly in Q4:
CEOs’ expectations regarding short-term prospects in their own industries was relatively unchanged:
Employment, Recruiting, Wages, and Capital Spending
Industry Risks:
CEO concerns about geopolitical risks subsided in Q4, while cyber, along with legal and regulatory uncertainty rose to the top
US Recession Outlook:
Recession fears receded in the Q4 survey compared to the start of the year
Federal Funds Rate, pt1:
Most CEOs expect the Fed to raise its target rate at least one more time in the current tightening cycle
Federal Funds Rate, pt2:
Most CEOs expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates in the second half of 2024 or later
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org
About The Business Council
The Business Council is a forum for the CEOs of the world’s largest multinational corporations across all industry sectors. Members gather several times each year to share best practices, network and engage in intellectually provocative, enlightening discussions with peers and thought-leaders in business, government, academia, science, technology and other disciplines. Through the medium of discussion, the Council seeks to foster greater understanding of the major opportunities and challenges facing business, and to create consensus for solutions. The Business Council is a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (6) tax-exempt status. The Business Council does not lobby. Visit The Business Council’s website at www.thebusinesscouncil.org
For further information contact:
Joseph DiBlasi
781.308.7935
jdiblasi@tcb.org
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