Fed Cut Amid Data Fog: What You Need to Know
Our Privacy Policy has been updated! The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy. For more information on how The Conference Board collects and uses personal data, please visit our privacy policy. By continuing to use this Site or by clicking "ACCEPT", you acknowledge our privacy policy and consent to the use of cookies. 

Economic Data & Analysis

Global Economy Briefs

Timely insights from the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • We anticipate the Fed to deliver a 25bps interest rate cut at the 29 October FOMC meeting followed by three more cuts of a similar magnitude at each of the upcoming December, January and March meetings. We expect the Fed to reach the neutral policy rate of around 3% in March 2026.

Fed Cut Amid Data Fog: What You Need to Know

October 28, 2025

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • We anticipate the Fed to deliver a 25bps interest rate cut at the 29 October FOMC meeting followed by three more cuts of a similar magnitude at each of the upcoming December, January and March meetings. We expect the Fed to reach the neutral policy rate of around 3% in March 2026.

  • Despite elevated inflation, risks to employment outweigh price concerns. Hence, a reduction in policy rates appears likely as insurance against downside risks to labor market.

  • The Fed is poised to cut despite the lack of official government data. Just before the Fed communication blackout, Chair Powell suggested that the federal government shutdown and lack of official government data do not necessarily preclude policy rate cuts. He pointed to “a wide variety of public- and private-sector data that have remained available.”

  • It is important to note that in September, the Fed cut rates mainly because downside risks to the labor market intensified, not because of deteriorating data. They will likely continue to use this rationale for cutting rates amid the shutdown.

  • The shutdown itself adds negative risks to the economic outlook if it persists.

  • The October FOMC meeting also could provide some gui
Download Brief

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Senior US Economist

Read Bio

This publication is only available to Members. Please sign in to your myTCB® account to access it. To learn more about becoming a Member, click here. To check if your company is a Member, click here.

Sign In

Forgot your password

Create An Account

 

Keep my computer signed in

Forgot your password

Create An Account

myTCB® Members get exclusive access to webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to events.

More From This Series

Brief

CPI Details Give Green Light to Further Fed Rate Cuts

October 24, 2025

Brief

Rising Inflation Still Leaves Room for Fed Rate Cuts

September 26, 2025

Brief

Rising Labor Market Risks Unite the Fed to Deliver 25bps Cut

September 17, 2025

Brief

Fed to Cut 25bps to Preserve Delicate Economic Balance

September 16, 2025

Brief

August Retail Sales Reflect Consumer Resilience—for Now

September 16, 2025

Brief

Tariffs a Factor, but Still Muted in CPI; Fed to Focus on Labor Market

September 11, 2025

Charts

Global Gray Swans Tool

The Gray Swans Tool helps C-suite executives better navigate today’s quickly developing economic, political, and technological environments.

LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration

Charts

Future Occupational Labor Shortages Risk Index (database)

This index identifies the risk of future labor shortages for specific occupations.

LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration

Charts

US-China Gray Swans Watchlist - Risk Assessment Tool

Our goal is to help members see beyond the political dynamic to inform a medium-term view that supports your strategic planning at this difficult juncture.

LEARN MORE Yellow and white frame illustration

U.S. Economic Indicators

  • Consumer Confidence - 1.0 pts
  • Employment Trends Index - 0.76 %
  • Help Wanted OnLine + 1.0 %
  • Leading Economic Index - 0.5 %
  • Measure of CEO Confidence - 1.0 pts

    • Innovation and Productivity

    Total Economy Database

    Global Economic Outlook

    Global Economic Outlook

    Global Economic Indicators

  • Australia +0.6%
  • Brazil -0.9%
  • China -0.1%
  • Euro Area -0.3%
  • France +0.4%
  • Germany -0.5%
  • Global -0.4%
  • India +0.3%
  • Japan +0.3%
  • Korea +0.3%
  • Mexico +0.4%
  • Spain -0.1%
  • U.K. -0.3%
  • U.S. -0.5%

    • Economic Indicator Calendar

    All release times displayed are Eastern Time


    Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed. TCB will resume publication once updated US federal government data are released.


    Related Content

    Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences

    Image

    Recession & Growth Trackers
    Image

    US Leading Indicators
    Image

    Help Wanted OnLine®

    Press Releases / In the News

    PRESS RELEASE

    US Consumer Confidence Virtually Unchanged in October

    October 28, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for China Ticked Down in September

    October 27, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    New Data Reveal the Demographic Divides Driving US Consumer Confidence

    October 23, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    The Conference Board Launches Consumer Confidence Survey® Premium Dataset

    October 23, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for India Increased in September

    October 23, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for Mexico Increased in September

    October 21, 2025

    Data central

    Subscribe to Access Data Central & Chart Reports

    Your centralized, one-stop portal for accessing and exporting The Conference Board global suite of monthly and quarterly economic data. Get up to speed on critical trends—anytime, anywhere—with customizable real-time datasets.

    Upcoming Events

    Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences

    Explore More on this Topic

    Publications

    Global Forecast Update

    Global Forecast Update

    October 17, 2025 | Article

    Economy Watch: US View (October 2025)

    Economy Watch: US View (October 2025)

    October 17, 2025 | Article

    CEO Confidence Survey Quarterly Report

    CEO Confidence Survey Quarterly Report

    October 16, 2025 | Article

    On Demand Webcasts, Podcasts and Videos