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11 September 2026 / Report
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Copy LinkThe U.S. economy is nearing yearend with an increasingly difficult policy mix. The Federal Reserve now appears likely to respond to renewed inflation pressures with a series of interest rate hikes, risking a deeper consumer slowdown than was already underway. We now anticipate three consecutive rate hikes in September, October, and December.U.S. Outlook: Fed Tightening to Deepen Consumer Pullback
August inflation was hotter than expected, energy prices are rising again, and pipeline pressures suggest that inflation could remain elevated over the coming months. At the same time, household purchasing power is weakening reflecting tepid real income growth, and consumers are already pulling back from discretionary purchases.
Rising energy prices reinforce the risk that inflation will remain elevated for longer. The expanding conflict in the Middle East and renewed threats to major shipping routes are keeping oil prices high, while increasing gasoline and diesel costs are moving through supply chains. If the conflict persists, these pressures are likely to raise transportation and production costs and, ultimately, consumer prices. Meanwhile, elevated bond yields are also placing upward pressure on prices, as companies may try to pass higher interest costs onto the consumer.
Higher interest rates cannot resolve supply disruptions driving oil prices higher, but they
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PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Japan Rose in July and Was Upwardly Revised for June 2026
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LEI for Spain Ticked Down in July
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The Global LEI Was Unchanged in June and Up Slightly in July
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LEI for China Decreased in July
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All release times displayed are Eastern Time
This report identifies trends to help businesses prepare for an environment with more challenges for labor and capital but improvements in productivity growth.
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