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16 July 2026 / Report
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Copy LinkThe US economy entered H2 2026 with a more uneven growth profile. The transition toward investment-led growth represents one of the defining characteristics of the current expansion. Throughout the post-pandemic recovery, household consumption accounted for the majority of economic growth. Today, that leadership is gradually shifting toward businesses investing in productivity-enhancing technologies. At the macro level, productivity gains from AI are apparent in GDP and in productivity defined by non-farm business output divided by aggregate hours worked. However, for companies and workers, the magnitude of the productivity gains generated by this investment remains uncertain. Still, the growth transition should allow the economy to continue expanding despite softer consumer spending, although the resulting growth profile is likely to remain uneven across industries.U.S. Outlook: Investment Takes the Baton from Consumers
Inflation has moderated as the temporary surge in energy prices associated with the Middle East conflict has largely reversed. With hostilities resuming in the Middle East, the risk is that both overall and underlying inflation could rise.
Inflation has improved, but affordability has not. Consumers continue to face substantially higher living costs than prior to the pandemic due to elevated prices. Housing expenses remain high, homeowner insurance premiums continue to rise rapidly in many parts of the country, financing costs remain restrictive, and cumulative inflation has permanently raised the cost of many essential goods and services. Although nominal wage growth remains positive, purchasing power remains limited by elevated prices.
The labor market continues to provide an important source of stability. While unemployment remains historically low, job creation has become increasingly concentrated among a relatively small number of industries. The growing concent
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PRESS RELEASE
The Global LEI Fell Slightly Both in May and in the Advanced Estimate for June
July 30, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
US Consumer Confidence Edged Down in July
July 28, 2026
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LEI for China Ticked Up in June
July 23, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for India Remained Unchanged in June
July 22, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Declined in June a
July 20, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for the Euro Area fell in June
July 17, 2026
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
This report identifies trends to help businesses prepare for an environment with more challenges for labor and capital but improvements in productivity growth.
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