The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined Slightly in December

09 Jan. 2017

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This month's release incorporates annual revisions of standardization factors to the Employment Trends Index, which bring it up to date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the index. The standardization factors, known as volatility adjustment factors, are done by calculating the standard deviation of the monthly percent change in each component. With this month’s update, the period used for calculating the standardization factors begins in November 1973 and ends in December 2015. The standardization factors are then used to construct the index from November 1973 to present. As a result, the revised index, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to this annual revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm

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Solid Job Growth Expected in Early 2017

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined slightly in the final month of 2016, after increasing in November. The index now stands at 129.62, down from 129.93 in November. The change represents a 2.2 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“After strong growth over the previous three months, the Employment Trends Index declined slightly in the final month of 2016. However, the ETI’s trend suggests that job growth will remain solid in early 2017,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “And, employers have become more upbeat in recent months, suggesting the labor market may very well tighten faster than pre-election expectations.”

December’s decline in the ETI was fueled by negative contributions from five of the eight components. In order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest, these were: Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get,” Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, and Job Openings.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

  • Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
  • Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
  • Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
  • Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
  • Job Openings (BLS)**
  • Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
  • Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

 

*Statistical imputation for the recent month

**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

 

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membershipand research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizationswith the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ 2017 Publication Schedule  (10 AM ET)

February 6
March 13
April 10
May 8
June 5
July 10
August 7
September
October 9
November 6
December 11

 

For further information contact:

Carol Courter 1 212 339 0232 carol.courter@conference-board.org

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Human Capital Exchange™
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About the Author
Gad Levanon, Ph.D.
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Gad Levanon, director of macroeconomic and labor market research, shares insights on labor market trends and the implications for business

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Technical Notes
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Press Release
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National Historical Table