Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:00 AM ET, May 22, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India increased by 0.7% in April 2025 to 158.9 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.4% in March. Despite monthly gain, the LEI contracted by 0.1% over the six-month period from October 2024 to April 2025, after growing by 2.0% over the previous six-month period between April and October 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India increased by 4.8% in April 2025 to 155.4 (2016=100), the same rate of improvement as in March. The Index expanded by 4.3% over the past six-month period ending in April 2025, a large reversal from contraction of 1.6% growth over the previous six months.

“The LEI for India increased sharply in April, after three consecutive monthly declines” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The large rebound in merchandise exports and the improvement in stock prices drove the most recent gain in the LEI. It is worth noting that the largest increase in exports by destination was to the US with +27% between April 2025 and April 2024. That surge was most likely temporary and resulted from stockpiling goods before the implementation of the new US tariffs. Despite the monthly increase, the six-month growth remained marginally negative, but the annual rate improved, suggesting that the growth momentum is likely to last throughout 2025. Accordingly, The Conference Board forecasts that India’s real GDP will moderate to 5.9% growth in 2025 from 6.6% in 2024.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, June 24, 2025, at 9 A.M. ET.