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The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India Increased in November
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for India rose by 0.6 percent in November 2023 to 155.9 (2016=100), following three consecutive monthly increases. As a result, the LEI rose by 2.7 percent in the six-month period from May to November 2023, exceeding the 1.6 percent growth rate over the previous six months.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India decreased by 1.8 percent in November 2023 to 144.6 (2016=100), partially reversing a 2.6 percent increase in October. The CEI fell by 2.0 percent during the six-month period from May to November 2023, a significant decline compared to a 7.5 percent increase over the prior six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023.
“The India LEI rose in November, marking a fourth consecutive monthly increase,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Improvements were evident among all leading indicator components, except for the PMI for services activity. Since June 2023, many components have strengthened, especially the BSE index and REER. However, the outlook for India’s economy appears fragile over the short run given irregular weather patterns that can create volatility in food production and prices. Additionally, tighter monetary policy that should cool inflation may also dampen economic output. As such, The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP to expand by 4.8 percent in 2023 but moderate to 4.1 percent in 2024.”
The India LEI rose in November, following three consecutive months of improvement
Strong financial components and merchandise exports drove the increases in the LEI in November
The annual growth rate fell slightly in November
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 8 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org
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All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed.
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