Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India increased 0.3 percent in February 2022 to 143.9 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decline in January. The LEI grew by 3.7 percent in the six-month period from August 2021 to February 2022. 

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India increased 6.4 percent in February 2022 to 138.9 (2016=100). The CEI grew by 8.0 percent in the six-month period between August 2021 to February 2022. 

“The February gain in the LEI was primarily due to the yield spread component, contributing to the slower six-month growth rate as other leading indicators weakened,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine could further slow growth in the first half of the year due to exposure to rising food and energy prices.” 

The India LEI increased in February suggesting economic growth will continue in early 2022, but the outlook will likely encounter headwinds from the Ukrainian crisis

The recent trajectory of the India LEI points to continued economic growth, but risks may be rising due to the Ukrainian crisis

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of business cycle peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 36 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector    , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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