LEI for Germany Rose in July
Our Privacy Policy has been updated! The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy. For more information on how The Conference Board collects and uses personal data, please visit our privacy policy. By continuing to use this Site or by clicking "ACCEPT", you acknowledge our privacy policy and consent to the use of cookies. 

LEI for Germany Rose in July

Latest Press Release

Updated : 2024-09-16


For Release 9:30 AM ET, September 16, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.


 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany rose by 0.3 percent in July 2024 to 88.3 (2016=100), reversing a 0.3 percent decline in June. Over the six-month period between January and July 2024, the LEI for Germany contracted by 0.2 percent, a muted rate of decline compared to the 4.5 percent contraction between July 2023 and January 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany decreased by 0.3 percent in July 2024 to 103.8 (2016=100), more than reversing the 0.2 percent improvement in June. The CEI for Germany was flat over the six-month period from January to July 2024, still an improved rate compared to the 0.6 percent decline over the previous six-month period.

 

“The LEI for Germany recovered in July, erasing the decline from the prior month.” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “July’s Index reading saw further improvements in new orders for investment goods, which weighed on the Index earlier this year, and consumer confidence. If sustained in coming months, it could signal a potential forthcoming recovery in private consumption and the industrial sector. Moreover, five of the seven components showed positive contributions, except for the yield spread, which has weighed on the Index since January 2023, and new residential construction orders. The semiannual and annual growth rate of the Germany LEI, while still negative, continued to recover, suggesting headwinds to growth should lessen in the near term. The LEI suggests that the German economy could experience some growth in the second half of this year.”

 

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, October 15, 2024, at 9:30 A.M. ET.

 

The Germany LEI recovered in July

 

July's LEI for Germany saw improvements in new orders for investment goods and consumer confidence

 

The longer-term trajectory of the Germany LEI, while still negative, continued to recover, suggesting headwinds to growth should lessen in the near term

  

NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Dsduration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.

The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the diffusion index lies below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month rate of decline falls below the threshold of −4.6 percent. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.

 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

 The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around five months.

 

The seven components of Leading Economic Index® for Germany are:

  • New Orders for Investment Goods
  • Yield Spread, 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate
  • Consumer Confidence Index
  • Inventory Change
  • New Residential Construction Orders
  • Stock Price Index
  • Gross Enterprises and Properties Income

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Germany are:

  • Industrial Production
  • Employed Persons
  • Retail Trade
  • Manufacturing Sales

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

 


About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org

 

Global Economic Indicators

  • Australia +0.6%
  • Brazil -0.9%
  • China -0.5%
  • Euro Area -0.3%
  • France +0.4%
  • Germany -0.5%
  • Global -0.4%
  • India +0.1%
  • Japan +0.3%
  • Korea +0.3%
  • Mexico +0.1%
  • Spain -0.1%
  • U.K. -0.3%
  • U.S. -0.5%
  • Press Releases / In the News

    PRESS RELEASE

    The LEI for France Improved in August

    October 17, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for the Euro Area Declined in September

    October 16, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for Brazil Increased in September

    October 15, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    The LEI for Germany Declined Again in August

    October 14, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for Australia Increased in August

    October 14, 2025

    PRESS RELEASE

    LEI for the UK declined in August

    October 13, 2025

    Data central

    Subscribe to Access Data Central & Chart Reports

    Your centralized, one-stop portal for accessing and exporting The Conference Board global suite of monthly and quarterly economic data. Get up to speed on critical trends—anytime, anywhere—with customizable real-time datasets.

    Economic Indicator Calendar

    All release times displayed are Eastern Time


    Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed. TCB will resume publication once updated US federal government data are released.

    Explore More on this Topic


    Publications


    On Demand Webcasts, Podcasts and Videos