Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany remained unchanged in April 2023 at 91.7 (2016=100), after declining by 0.5 percent in March. Despite slower growth in recent months, the LEI grew by 1.6 percent in the six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023, a recovery from a contraction of 4.6 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany also remained unchanged in April 2023 at 104.6 (2016=100), after a decrease of 0.1 percent in March. The CEI grew by 0.4 percent in the six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023, following a 0.5 percent increase over the previous six-month period, from April to October 2022.

“The LEI for Germany was flat in April, but its six-month growth rate is displaying improvement from the depths reached last year,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “While consumer confidence has recovered, weakness persists in new residential construction orders and new orders for investment goods, as downside risks remain and could be exacerbated by higher interest rates. Meanwhile, core inflation remains stubborn. The Conference Board expects Germany’s real GDP to contract by 0.6 percent year-over-year in 2023, downwardly revised from a 0.1 percent decline.”

The Germany LEI was flat in April

The six-month growth rate of the LEI turned positive, led by a recovery in consumer confidence and business income

The annual growth rate of the LEI, while recovering, is still negative and warns of weaknesses ahead   

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include: New Orders, Yield 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Inventory Change, New Residential Construction Orders, Stock Price Index, and Gross Enterprises and Properties Income.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org